The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

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  1. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Many in the New World were from Christian sects who felt persecuted back home. The secularism was clear. No theocracy. I'm sure these dudes were sick enough of The Pope and the King / Anglican Church.

    One thing for sure: Those ideas sure weren't written by Buddhists, Hindus, Islamists, or Satanists! I was going to say that the "they were ALL Diests" deal has since been revised since the 70s. There is a recognition that many were actually practicing Christians. Not God Squad Bible study every Wednesday night, but Christians nevertheless.

    Dislike towards Christians of the nutty "God hates fags" and "being rich is an indication that Jesus loves you" variety shouldn't prevent us appreciating the foundations of where they came. Heck, Buddhists don't even believe in a Creator or the fact that you are even guaranteed shit.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  2. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    You might have seen it already but this is interview with an epidemiology prof from the university hospital in Seul.

    Lots of information from the guy who really knows what he is talking about. Watching this I realized how sick and tired I am of f'ing hyperventilating scumbags from the corporate media trying to advance their own agenda, whatever it is, irrespective of the danger we are all sharing.
     
  3. boredpanda

    boredpanda Almost "Made"

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    The irony. Anyone else getting a virus warning from that page? Very likely a false positive, but figured I'd mention it. Personally I haven't seen index.php as a subfolder before either.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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    I should have specified this point more. Some cultures had diets and sanitary habits that we now sometimes consider ground breaking and then some marketing wizzard goes "superfood."

    I mentioned this not taking into consideration whether to specify the ancient Greeks or the early Hebrews in the time of king David. Also I neglected to mention social classes if present in those times. I must have skipped a few (obvious understatement) details.

    The point I was trying to make was that processed food as we know it today did not exist. Access to fresh ingredients was easier. Makes you think.

    Oh well you can have your moment. I am too tired to even pretend to care about this. Enjoy your moment of revolting disgust, I need a break from everything Covid 19 and the people around me keep talking about it or keep turning on the TV. f**k it.
     
  5. Scott Kramer

    Scott Kramer Friend

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    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Why are the NY new cases so overwhelming vs CA's little trickle (according to this & the Johns Hopkins overview) ? Is CA doing something right, not reporting (yet), different timeline, wrong data? Maybe a chart for NY is in order, and Louisiana may get bad as they were all over each other (and the country) for mardi gras.

    There're inklings this is weirder than a flu– ie cell damage, let alone the R-Naught an order of magnitude higher. Taking all info with a grain of salt at this point. But, changed my thought process from: yikes, this is gonna be a nasty flu.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  6. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    I'm no scientist, but my understanding of what we are seeing, with the large divergence of this virus' effect in different places in the world, is largely the variation of R values based on the measures that are being taken against it.

    https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/...earch-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory

    You can lock a country down and have the effect of lowering that value, hopefully even below 1. That may or may not last once you start relaxing the controls, so most models show a sawtooth shaped graph if we are forced to try and keep the R value low on a continuous basis. In this case the main goal is simply to keep the health care system from being overwhelmed (at which points the death rates climbs considerably). Unfortunately, if the R value gets too large and the virus becomes endemic in a community, nothing is ever going to put that cat back in the proverbial bag. Unfortunately I think NY has crossed that threshold and even extreme measures may not drop that R value enough to keep the system from collapsing.

    I hope I'm wrong, and there are still large uncertainties, but the basic math is not complicated.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  7. winders

    winders boomer

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    That's just an ignorant statement biased by your own beliefs in regards to Christians and Republicans.
     
  8. BillOhio

    BillOhio Friend

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    'Democrat no matter what' would be just as easy to manipulate.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  9. Ksaurav402

    Ksaurav402 Friend

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    My colleagues told me they are getting the same. I took the link from head fi so assumed it to be authentic
     
  10. Claud

    Claud Living the ORFAS dream

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    Best info from someone who can be trusted. I went on Ebay and Amazon after seeing this interview and bought masks. At 72, you do not take chances. I saw several Americans on the news tonight wearing masks.
     
  11. Thenewerguy009

    Thenewerguy009 Friend

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    Population density & popularity in tourism, New York is the king of both.
    That & their idiot health inspector said on TV not to worry & for people to keep making close contact with each other when the infection was very early.
     
  12. Taverius

    Taverius Smells like sausages

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    Early on some of our pond scum went around shaking hands to reassure the stock market that there was nothing to worry about.

    Now one of them is in hospital with COVID.

    Funny how the same idiocy leads to the same tragedy, almost as if unqualified morons shouldn't be making important decisions. :rolleyes:
     
  13. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    That was a good interview. That said, while he was clear wearing masks is beneficial, I think that opinion was informed by his experience with masks as they are worn in Asia. It is apparently not uncommon for a majority of people there to wear masks when out in public, and that is without a doubt beneficial in reducing the spread of respiratory contagions. From my reading elsewhere though it seems likely most of that benefit is derived from people who are contagious not spreading the virus as widely while wearing a mask. Protection for the wearer OTOH requires much more discipline than just putting it on. If you are touching it all the time, to adjust it, or even worse to re-use it multiple times, then you may just end up with a contaminated mask on your face in short order.

    My neighbor is a nurse, and he is pretty adamant that using PPE properly does take training and practice. Same with gloves, they can protect you if you are careful, but they also transfer contaminants every bit as effectively as bare hands. If you don't understand where and how to use them, you might as well not bother.
     
  14. Ksaurav402

    Ksaurav402 Friend

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    Sad but true... upload_2020-3-31_7-40-53.jpeg
     
  15. JustAnotherRando

    JustAnotherRando My other bike is a Ferrari

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    I've posted briefly on this before, but the incubation period references could do with a little more looking at. I strongly suspect that it's quoted at 14 days because "2 weeks" sticks in the mind and gives a margin of error.

    There are several studies and sources referenced in the link below. Median is closer to 5-6 days, and as far as I've been able to figure out, standard deviation is 3 days. So ~70% of infected people will show symptoms within ~8 days.

    Yeah, I can definitely see why media reports just keep saying "14 days" though, it's way easier to write that than talk about medians and SDs.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  16. Ksaurav402

    Ksaurav402 Friend

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    I think it's better to be in isolation for 14 days and above if you have made any international travel or have come in contact with any suspect due to asymptomatic nature of COVID 19.
     
  17. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    It's being able to get the raw data to compare trends in different parts of NY. I know that upstate NY to the NYC area is different, but honestly I don't know enough about NY state to do a breakdown like the ones I've posted for CA. I also haven't found a source for NY deaths. TBH, I probably could if I tried, but I'm honestly afraid to see the results. (Putting on my ignorance neurosis hat).
     
  18. penguins

    penguins Friend, formerly known as fp627

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    https://www.maskssavelives.org/

    Correlation is not causation, etc... but I dug around and saw this in response to my previous doubt about "don't wear masks they don't help":
    [​IMG]

    FWIW, I thought testing was the key at first until I found out Japan had less per capita testing that the US / much of EU.
     
  19. Tachikoma

    Tachikoma Almost "Made"

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    Japan also has 56 deaths versus 1953 cases, it is almost a certainty that undertesting is an issue in the great Nippon.
     
  20. JustAnotherRando

    JustAnotherRando My other bike is a Ferrari

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    I've seen this go around in support of masks so many times now it's driving me nuts. Singapore* has very low percentages of mask usage (I'm talking to guys there on a daily basis for work who say about one in ten out on the streets). Japan has a mixed adoption out on the streets (from talking to a colleague out in Tokyo yesterday). Hong Kong is running at around 95% mask use on the streets, closer to 100% on public transport. The HK numbers are based on personal observation- I have literally walked around counting because I am a nerd.

    Each of these three locations has a whole raft of other factors going into virus control, and also SARS experience. Some of these factors are the same, some of them like mask usage, or whether or not schools remain open, are wildly different. That graph cannot be distilled into "masks = good". That entire masksavelives website is a little... suspect. Clearly they have a position, and they have gone out looking for whatever supports that position.

    Sorry for the rant, this is an issue that's been getting my goat for a while now. I'm gonna back away from the keyboard and take some deep breaths.


    * There was a great off the cuff remark by a SG government minister about mask usage to the effect of "we're not idiots like in Hong Kong so we're not going to burn up our supply of masks that should be reserved for medics." A writeup of it is here: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...iots-guide-coronavirus-crisis-control-dont-do
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
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