The Coronavirus Thread

None the less, common sense says that if you keep people apart they cannot catch stuff off each other.

Almost regardless of my local situation (lockdown), I'm staying indoors largely because it is the safest place to be.

 

I hope it is not going to last until summer, but if it does...protect yourself.

 

I can't see your IMG in that post, but yes... I am not going out without a condom on my head.

 

If in the US...

You can look up your state here (by changing the location in the green bar) to see projections for a surge in cases and effect on health care capacity: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

California surge projected to peak around April 26th.

 

This was sent out here in NYC earlier this evening:

 

People better quarantine because the US economy will have to restart by Junish to not be fucked for a decade. Lower the curve or be forced back to work. It's easier to force people into quarantine. What was with all those people on the docks watching the hospital ship come into New York? Why didn't they having the crap beaten out of them and then hauled off to Rykers? They can come out of this as unemployable convicted felons. The state should sue them for damages for everyone they infect. Oh they caused a death because you refused to stay at home? Hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars.

 

White people outside of Eastern Europe don't beat each other with sticks anymore. Finland probably does some crazy shit though but they're anti-social enough anyway to not get killed by shit like this.

White people back in the day used to be some of the most sadistic people on earth. "Olaf, God will tell us if you stole the sheep. Here catch this. Why yes it's a red hot iron bar. If it doesn't burn you after 30 seconds, you're not guilty. If you drop it or you get burned, God is punishing you. Then you hang."

The USA should bring back witchcraft trials for people spreading coronavirus. Just burn some people and everyone will get in line.

 

I'm curious as to how the

This is totally surprising for me- the US is so far doing far better than big chunks of Western Europe, where deaths per million for some countries are in the 50s-90s. Or if you look at Italy and Spain, well past 200.

I honestly hope that this emergency results in longer term change for the better. I'm afraid that five years down the line, long after this has blown over, we'll have reverted to the 'cheap and convenient' dependencies on countries with low labour costs and highly questionable business practices.

 

Where I'm at in Florida, people seemed to have heeded the stay-home orders. Sad that it took the densest areas getting nailed for our governor to make that call. He felt that people wouldn't listen anyway... like a parent ignoring a brat's unacceptable behavior because "it doesn't change anyway." I still think it was beyond stupid for him, as a leader, to NOT do everything, no matter how much he trusted people to follow, to hammer-down the most important thing for people to do. Distancing and staying home whenever possible has always been the best any one person had. Everything else we currently have to fight this is futile if people aren't even doing those things. It just looks bad for him to not stand behind it with action until after things go serious in our state. It's a lesson we've all be watching other places learn since the news broke! People HAVE to follow this stuff!

Fortunately, he was wrong. On my way to work, there was finally nobody on the road. Before that order came through, traffic was always crazy. Tons of out-of-state plates. All I could think was "These people don't live here, they don't work here, almost everything is closed, so where are they always going?" Apparently nowhere important, because they were at home for once. I guess nobody wants to be stopped by police in a state they don't usually even go to at all.

Great news for me, because when those people don't drive like crazy assholes, they don't know where they're going and do things like cut across 3 lanes of traffic, cutting you off going 50mph, in a panicked attempt to not miss their turn, when in fact there is a second turning point right after and a u-turn between every set of lights... or they attempt to turn in the oncoming lane on US-1, popping the median and almost swerving into you all the way on the outermost turn lane. The locals often practice something called 'offensive driving' here, but that stuff is in a different class than what these folks bring to the table. If the coronavirus didn't kill me for still having to go to work, those people might. It's kind of a relief to only have to worry about the virus now.

Maybe it is in my head, but there is a shift in attitudes as well. I think a lot of people are just reaching that point of reckoning with this as a long haul thing. I think a lot of people legitimately thought something was going to change not long after everything started ramping up... kinda thinking "It's impossible that we'll just stay like this, right?" Now from one week to the next, the amount of deaths/hospitalizations has shot-up, people have been laid off en masse, and restrictions only get tighter.

I think people were treating it like a vacation because they thought it would be shorter than this, like things would be better by now. They didn't believe the government would just 'let' the economy wilt for something like this. It wasn't conceivable to them. So I think right about now, they are simultaneously realizing that this is not only a very serious threat, but that it's so serious, that sacrifice is actually unavoidable.

I too worried about the economy, but I never wondered how bad things could really be with the virus. It was never "What's going to happen to our economy?" We were always going to have to shut down and get fucked. The question was and for me still is "What are we gonna do to mitigate that?"

I have seen so much denial over the course of this... excuses for why it can't happen, conspiratorial fairy-tales, rose-tinted dreams of a better solution coming in time, and political issues with no bearing on the base situation... it is just unreal.

It reminds me of a falling-out I had with an ex. She was a shallow person and a user, and I was figuring out that not only did she cheat on me, but was not honest throughout the relationship. About once a week we would talk and I would describe things that were said and done literally, with no spin. Just lay it out and give her easy chances to answer honestly. She would deny it and try to act like I was crazy. No fluff and no anger from me - just the obvious, undeniable stuff. And then a week later she'd be owning up, but in getting to the next step in the chain of things, would go back to misguided denial tactics, again and again. And it's just up and up until there's nothing left... she would still try to rationalize, knowing full well it was all fucked and she had cornered herself. In the end we both had to share the same reality, only it looked worse for her because she spent so much time trying to make it something else.

That's how people here have been with COVID-19. Only letting in what they want to accept in the moment, and waiting for the bad to hit before accepting more of the reality, kinda hoping it will pass over them.

I guess people really aren't good with dealing with anything beyond immediacy. I don't mean to be cynical about it - at some points it has been and still is instrumental to our continued survival. But god damn if it doesn't ever shoot us in the foot in these big, modern, organized societies. It's like, in our overall existence there is this dedication to the future - eyes always on the horizon. And yet in our individual thoughts and actions, we always cling to the moment.

It's just so strange, because I've always felt like I knew exactly what was coming... and that it was obvious long before the shutdowns and quarantines were even a real, serious topic in the US. It was obvious that even if it never got nearly as bad as it did in the worst countries, it would still be very bad and a lot of things would change for pretty much everyone in our society for an indefinite but undoubtedly long period of time. I saw that much as an inevitability and couldn't understand what it was people were trying to grapple with and debate over. People would talk like certain things just weren't happening. Worst-case was never sincerely on the table for many I had met.

I mean, how could you look at what was happening a couple of months ago and not be utterly tormented by that notion all day? People acted like they never thought of it, but I don't see how that's possible.

Maybe it's because I didn't pay attention to most of the commentary... the race to figure out what to do leads to a lot of people stepping up to be the one who knows. People could debate it all day, and they did - but it was obviously just politics. The reality coming would not change for people's concerns or opinions.

I remember people here almost unilaterally decrying holing-off as terrible and inhumane... that it could never happen in the land of the free. People felt we'd take too big of a hit. Almost has a ring of arrogance to it, eh? So I've been watching myself be proven more right over time... and seeing people finally fully stepping into it as late as now just doesn't compute for me. To see these same people who were so dismissive now come to rapid acceptance of the idea that you should have proof of where you're going for the police or expect to be sent home, is just unprecedented.

It's not even a matter of not caring. If you truly care about yourself and you understand things, you don't disregard such major things. Even that alone should be enough to take it seriously. Perhaps earlier in, when there was a lot of newer information, people took advantage of the uncertainty to hear what they wanted to hear in the constant talk around it. Clearly they must've convinced themselves they would be at no risk, or people would have been willingly winding down, instead of chilling at the beach and going on cruises just going by what they can easily know of what the situation is. Like, you don't have to sift through the news all day every day to know that everyone is at risk and things aren't going to begin becoming normal any time soon.

Call it stubbornness... I don't know what to make of it. Most people had to know. While everyone I spoke to was extremely optimistic and/or dismissive, everything was being hoarded like crazy. So when I encountered someone who was projecting that nonchalant attitude to me, I would immediately wonder if they might be one of the hoarders. Like somehow that blase, faux-normalcy was their way of swallowing the panic. Maybe they just didn't want to act or live their lives as scared as they actually were on the inside. The human psyche can do far crazier things.

This is just not anybody's world here. I've been hearing people tell me the same things that I told them around two weeks before, but they dismissed what I was saying back then. I don't think I've ever fully grasped it myself, but it's been interesting, watching the ways people internalize all of this over time.

I guess I'm glad to see a new normal taking hold. People didn't want this to be normal, not considering that they wouldn't have a choice but to make it that at some point. I just wish everyone had been more willing to adapt before. We all would have been so much better off.

 

Fun fact, while the Governors of every state are telling people not to buy masks because they are in short demand, but the masks are well stocked up & plentiful to actually buy. As long as you buy them direct from China.
Go to any of the Chinese giant retail sites & they are literally hundreds, if not thousands of Chinese market sellers, selling them in-stock with next day shipping. No limit to how many you can buy.
They are of course priced appropriately for the higher demand.

They're even advertising toilet paper & hand sanitizers the same, completely in-stock & ready to ship out, no limit & with a nice mark up for them.

...yeah, after this is over, there will big changes.

 

This is so true....

 

Don't know a nice way of asking this so: TF does NY have 90k+ (and NJ have 25k+ cases) when the next most populous states (CA and TX) only have 9k and 5k as of CDC map right now? If anything, I expected CA to have way more, especially given how initial cases popped up here.

At first I suspected population density, but based on map, it looks like some New Yorkers got out and infected surrounding states... but then it spread quickly in those less densely populated places too.

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As for deciding who gets resources and states outbidding each other, from a legal standpoint, does the federal gov have authority to jump in and solve this? Rock and a hard place yes, but if there were areas where good care was less likely or say everyone was 70+ (just making up examples), wouldn't it be logical to spend less resources here? Not easy, but say in war, if someone is obviously going to die regardless, the medic/corpsman moves on to the next guy that they have a chance of saving. Or should this just be done based on mathematical models via population density and transmissions rates, weather, etc.?
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Lastly, saw something that made me laugh a bit yesterday and then ask the serious question - when central CCP gov started telling the world about this ~3-4 months ago, why did no one (minus probably HK and Taiwan) care or take it seriously when it was very clear via international media (or say US correspondents in China) that this was going to be something very serious?? On top of that, when China started building temporary hospital buildings in 1 week (read between the lines: THIS IS URGENT!!!!!!!!!), the world was still just like ahh yeah w/e. And now this whole crap has happened.

I get not everyone has the cultural context to understand this (I wouldn't myself a few years ago), but the big official WARNING THIS IS NO JOKE signal for people watching and the US gov should have been when CCP decided to screw with CNY procedures this year (probably akin to the US gov screwing with Christmas and New Year's) and yet still nothing serious was done???

 

I'm very against "$ over people" or using "let some poor people die to save some corporations / the 1%", but I would assume that there will be a point where if the economy goes TOO upside down, more people will get squished by that (from a practical / realistic sense) than the actual disease. Scary to think about where that point will be and how hard of a choice (and the ensuing mass social unrest) that will be.

Kind of like how the world probably hates US military / political / financial hegemony, but the uneasy stability this brings keeps the world stable enough to keep half the world from devolving into war torn hellscapes (unfortunately at our financial expense while others benefit from said uneasy stability.... or maybe they already paid with lost lives and financial opportunities, IDK).

 

LA and NYC is quite interesting how opposite they are

Nobody takes public transportation if they can help it in LA, tons of people take the subway in NYC
LA has a ton of people but if we feel too close to each other we can build north, east and south. NYC on the other hand is out of room to move outwards so they built dense and they built tall.
People are always driving in LA and we are all in our personal bubbles in a car. Tons of people get plenty of places through walking, biking, buses, trains etc.

I don't doubt LA is going to go through the same thing as NYC. Just our massive rise is coming and its inevitable whereas NYC is likely soon to peak soon. Just hope NYC is going to have enough personnel, PPE, beds, and ventilators for it.

Also remember our systemic problem right now is testing. NY has by far and wide done the most testing. If every state tested as much as NY we will without a doubt see everyone states positive numbers would skyrocket.
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

California does have more, just going by the California projects @CEE TEE posted, we are in for a rough ride.

Trump could and should take charge with the DPA so just one entity takes control and stops the outbidding bullshit. But he doesn't want to until Jared gives him the green light.

There were people saying we should have done more since it started in the beginning and we saw how bad China was doing. The problem was Trump didn't think it was a big deal until March. The humanitarian part of us shipped 18 tons of medical supplies to China in early Feb and now we desperately need it.

Taiwan and Hong Kong got hit super hard by SARS and they learned and adapted because of it. USA hasn't gone through the same in decades.

 

You might want to be careful with ordering those from China.

https://time.com/5814940/china-mask-diplomacy-falters/

Though, given China's track record of cutting corners re food safety, this shouldn't be too surprising.

 

Just a couple of side points, as I really have no idea why the rest of the world did no preparation (besides inertia and an it-just-happening-in-China attitude).

I think that the 10 day hospital build was more an exercise in PR (for both internal and external consumption) than anything else. I subsequently read media stories with photos of the inside of that site, and it was pretty much non-functional for quite a long time. Not sure when and if it became properly operational. But it made for a fantastic news story- internally that they were really doing something big and important, and externally that they were amazingly well organised and could execute big projects faster than any other country.

Secondly, one of the big reasons this has turned into such a massive clusterfuck was that China wanted to avoid disrupting CNY with news about a scary new disease. When they locked down just at the start of CNY, it was only in parts of Hubei, and key to this was they gave so much advance notice that 5M people left Wuhan before it started. As a quarantine exercise, it was laughably ineffective. Hubei is in the centre of the country, it's a major transport nexus. So even from just next door, there were conflicting messages as to how seriously this was being taken.

Of course, this really doesn't excuse why practically every other country in the world was caught flat footed.

Lots of news stories about substandard masks here in HK- stuff that just soaks through with water vapour, stuff that tears easily. Stuff with high bacterial loads. Not all from China, but also imports from some other countries in the region. And then there are all the reports of actual medical supplies like test kits from China being rejected by European countries because they are so inaccurate.

Two months ago, I bought a bunch of sanitiser, and some replacement cartridges for my old respirator. I was quite deliberate in avoiding Chinese sources when I did this. When I've spoken to other people here in HK about this stuff, they have the same concerns... because we're all intimately familiar with product reliability north of the border.

 

Funny, Trump’s first travel ban (China) was announced January 31st. You don’t issue travel bans because of a virus if you don’t think it is a big deal.

You would be better served to stop judging with the benefit of hindsight.

 

Funny, Trump closed Mar-A-Lago two weeks ago. When an unqualified immoral idiot who enjoys issuing travel bans issues a travel ban, that doesn't mean he's taking anything seriously.