The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

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  1. fraggler

    fraggler A Happy & Busy Life

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    Yep. My GF got hers on the first day available. The IRS website still says it can't find any info on me...
     
  2. ColtMrFire

    ColtMrFire Writes better fan fics than you

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    After trying for over a week I finally got through and put in my bank info. I guess the lesson is keep trying.
     
  3. ColtMrFire

    ColtMrFire Writes better fan fics than you

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    Plausible deniability. Come re-election time, the narrative must cast them in a good light. They didn't potentially allow millions to die from alcoholism, suicide and starvation from the economic fallout. They SAVED lives.
     
  4. Rowethren

    Rowethren Acquaintance

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    The death rate might be similar to common seasonal flu but the big difference is millions of people are vaccinated against it. In the UK ~70% of people over 65 (who make up the vast majority of Corvid-19 deaths) are vaccinated for seasonal flu each year and most people who work for the NHS, anyone who is considered vulnerable with things like severe asthma and pregnant women.
     
  5. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    And also that it happens over months or even the whole year, not a very few weeks. By the way, I suppose all the things that used to kill people in normal times are still killing them. Including flu.
     
  6. fraggler

    fraggler A Happy & Busy Life

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    True, though I file taxes every year and my direct deposit and address info hasn't changed in years. Weird that nothing shows for me.
     
  7. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Why I do feel the feeling that this is something that you or someone you know is very acutely aware of?

    Whereas most Americans would have no idea, other than those who worked in telecom who set up line-of-sight microwave antennae on rooftops to connect Ethernet for two buildings across the street from each other. (The ones with the small dishes are the ones that boil your kidneys).

    And why does it seem that the stories in the HBO Chernobyl series we watched were not Hollywood exaggerations, but actually true. We must have an SBAF meet and invite your over. If you cannot pay, we must set up a GoFundMe for you. After our meets, we go out to dinner in smaller groups and have alcohol, and then come back into a larger group to have more alcohol.
     
  8. Zampotech

    Zampotech Friend

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    Thank you for the good offer
    I am always happy to meet under the scheme vodka-coffee-vodka-coffee-vodka [​IMG]

    There are two series about Chernobyl, Russian and American-British. The most accurate result was American-British.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  9. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

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    We can first start on Zoom.
     
  10. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    It's time for all healthy men women and children to get back to work....by and large, everyone in New York has been exposed to Covid-19 by now,,,,vulnerables, stay isolated
     
  11. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    'All the things' is an interesting way to compare the numbers.

    In the Lombardy region of Italy in 2018, deaths from all causes are given as 99,542. Death rates aren't uniform throughout the year, but for comparative purposes, dividing that by 6 gives an average of 16,950 in any 2 month period. COVID-19 deaths reported in Lombardy since the first reported one to April 23 are 12,940, a > 75% increase over the average 'natural' 2-month number (an estimate from earlier in April with numbers broken down by Province and Commune is here). Sure, there's some uncertainty in the number; but even if it's found to be too high by thousands, excess mortality will remain very large.

    Mortality from the virus in Lombardy so far seems to be the worst globally, for reasons still unknown. While in other regions we can speculate from antibody studies that actual infections are much higher than test indications, and death rates are therefore much lower than reported, looking at excess mortality in a place where the virus was circulating widely before there were effective restrictions can provide context for decisions on maintaining or removing such restrictions.
     
  12. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    Italy not so unknown now. The region has the oldest population percentage. There were not much excess hospital beds available prior to covid-19 and in short time there were none, patients went untreated by policy, they just threw in the towel. Whoever was in the hospital prior (remember the high aged percentage) likely were infected quickly. It has also been noted that medical staff are the oldest in the country, The health system there is just not the great to begin with and it cracked early under the stress.
     
  13. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    Great. So we can just ignore that 75% excess mortality and say only a tiny fraction of that number will happen everywhere else?
     
  14. Taverius

    Taverius Smells like sausages

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    In the same way you can ignore the numbers from Spain - so long as you're fine with assuming your political class is competent and will make the right decisions with the next waves.

    Let me know if you think that, I always like to have a good laugh.
     
  15. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    your numbers are gross approximations and should be ignored, remember this is the flu season and with an aged population , a spike at this time is probably common. Also consider their inability to cope with much more than they already handle and I'd say yes, Italy's numbers do not represent anything close to what is happening in most of the rest of the world.

    You think they made the wrong decisions this time around?
     
  16. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    The third link I gave compares deaths from the same time periods in 2020 vs 2019 and arrives at an excess mortality figure quite a bit larger than my estimate.
     
  17. Boops

    Boops Friend

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    On what basis are you saying this? From everything that I've been reading and seeing, not nearly everyone in NYC has been exposed and it would be stupid to gamble that you would end up with a mild case of the virus by crowding back onto the subway trains without any semblance of a testing program in place.

    If the basis is the 75-minute video you included, could you help us out and sum up a bit?
     
  18. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    Yours was a clipped quote of mine. Probably the most important factor is that this region was able to handle much more than mild uptick in demand. They simply collapsed and many dies because they did not provide treatment and in many cases, would not by policy. And so more and more died.
    I suppose you want a cliff notes world, the epidemiologist states it far better than I can. The bilboda notes then:
    In antibody tests at different locations, the results show many more have had the virus and did not present symptoms. Factoring in these numbers in the death rate calculation leaves you with a number 50x smaller than what WHO CDC and others are stating. They are not using antibody tests, just those that have been tested.
    He extrapolated and applied it hypothetically to New York suggesting that 30% would also likely have antibodies and that by now, the vast majority would have been exposed.
    If i test negative today I could be positive tomorrow. Being tested is not that great at all. Acquiring hard data is where it's at.
    Watch the video. He has several on this exact subject. We were always told that there wasn't enough data to know much and that's why all the precautions. Now we have more and will be getting even more. If you are unwilling to let your viewpoint change with new information, you might as well stick your head up your butt and stay home til Christmas.
     
  19. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    @biboda,

    I agree (as just about everybody does) that this pandemic is a fast moving phenomena, that our understanding and data is improving literally every day, etc. I don't see how all this leads to your conclusion that "It's time for all healthy men women and children to get back to work..." unless you meant by that a very heavily qualified statement. Now that some governators (Georgia and Texas come to mind) are moving in that direction - though still quite cautiously - we will have even better data. In a sense this is all just one big experiment in prudential judgement. I suppose where you are in gross error is when you imply that "spikes like this are probably common", meaning this is just another flu season. Italy, Spain, NY, Michigan, and the like all reveal this is not just another flu.

    Will all this "prove" to be one big overreaction? This question will be answered in several different ways depending upon what you believe. For example, how much do you weigh general/personal economic stability and safety vs. the "value" of human lives. Each of us already had core and largely unchanging beliefs about this before the pandemic, which will largely remain the same after. Will there be significant changes to the economic landscape or public policy after? Call me pessimistic/optimistic (depending upon your viewpoint), but I really don't expect it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  20. gaspasser

    gaspasser Flatulence Maestro

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    Trump’s new favorite song
     
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