The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Random Thoughts' started by purr1n, Mar 16, 2020.

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  1. yotacowboy

    yotacowboy McRibs Kind of Guy

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    This'll fix us right up:
    [​IMG]
     
  2. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    70% still unexposed with such a high attack rate still seems problematic given what we've seen already in NY, NJ, specific parts of LA county, Wayne/Oakland county, etc. It's not just death rate, it's hospitalization rates, and of course the aforementioned attack rate.

    There could be an argument that "back to work" might work in less dense population areas may be feasible, with stipulations: virtual church/temple, no little league games, hyper vigilance in nursing homes, etc.
     
  3. Boops

    Boops Friend

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    I didn't want cliffs notes, just some context as to why I should watch a video that's over an hour. It's a lot to ask, so thanks for giving some main points.

    I watched the video anyway. There are a few things to note in my view:

    1. The biggest thing is that the data out of NYC is currently showing a higher infection fatality rate than the .1% they are claiming in this study. As of a few days ago, there were about 13,500 COVID fatalities in NYC (around 9,000 lab confirmed cases + 4,500 based on symptoms). Based on that number of fatalities, to get a fatality rate near .1% we'd have to (a) only count the lab-confirmed cases and (b) assume that all 8.5 million people in NYC had been infected with the virus. This gives a fatality rate of .1%. If we use the 13,500 fatalities, then we get a rate of .16%. The obvious problem being that no-one believes that 100% of NYC has been infected. If we take the recent antibody study done in NYC which found about 21% of people with antibodies, then we could extrapolate to 1,785,000 infections. With this number infected, we get a facility rate of .5% on the low end and .75% on the high end. Both numbers significantly higher than the .1% in the Stanford study.

    2. Even if the IFR is down near .1% (which doesn't seem likely based on the above), the R-naught value for COVID-19, based on data on https://rt.live, had been as high as 4 in NYC. During particular hot spots, it's also been high elsewhere the country. This is bad when compared to the typical R-naught for flu of 1 and leads to a significantly greater chance of hospitals becoming overwhelmed, combined with economic ripples because lots of people get sick and can’t work.

    3. It also seems to me that we don't yet know how many people who get COVID and survive end up with permanent damage to their lungs or other organs/systems in comparison with something like the flu. Anecdotally, I've heard/read lots of stories of people who end up fucked in some significant way. That's not data, but it seems to me to critically important to know that before we get too hasty.

    4. Lastly, Dr. I seems like a smart dude and even he said that we need to get back to work sooner rather than later and have an adequate testing infrastructure and plan in place to make that happen. We have in my estimation nowhere near even close to a coherent plan to reopen in the U.S. It is depressing and sad. Germany has its f'ing act together and has put comprehensive plans in place and is going to be opening back up. If we had competent leadership, we could do the same. But oh well we are fucked.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  4. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Earlier data suggested the attack rate R was well over 3 in Detroit and about 3 in NY. Typically, the R has been higher in bigger cities.

    Now let's say the 30% have the antibodies and that the 30% is accurate and all these people are immune. That would be reduce the attack rate by 30%. So R is now 2.1. So it's not "NY bad" anymore, but Reno, NV bad, which is pretty damn bad considering how many people end up in hospitals.

    We really need to see the number of cases go down, and after this R <= 1 before thinking about opening up.

    Opening up can be possible with smaller towns; however as Governator Newsom said today, it's problematic to have differing policies with each town since people can and will travel.

    So far I am impressed with our leadership in CA, how they listened to the scientists in Silly Con Valley, implemented partial and then full lockdowns early, and then how we hoarded all the protective gear and respirators, but then gave it out to other states later. I may just vote for the Porker next time.

    P.S. I had read that once you needed a respirator, there was a 90% that you were a goner. Don't know if this is true.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  5. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    I dunno, you have all that and then you have Sweden, which never instituted a lockdown and similarly Switzerland which did. The death rate is higher in Switzerland and Sweden is doing quite well. More data, I guess. It appears to be all about getting oxygen into the blood. The lungs are the normal way. I am sure there are other ways and many other therapies have shown effectiveness.
    Steering national policy based on some hot spots just doesn't seem wise. There will always be statistical anomalies, regions with numbers higher than the rest. I am getting tired of hearing about New York like it's the model for everywhere else. It isn't. For all anyone knows it's the water. Or the knicks or veganism. If anything, Stockholm should be the model. They are succeeding without a lockdown. When you consider cruise ships and the high rate of infections and extended cruise times with the low death rates how can anyone use the experience in NY, Detroit or anywhere else as the basis for formulating policy. It's just another data point but it seems to be the only one being used for guidance.
     
  6. haywood

    haywood Friend

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    Small towns are less dense but they also have less hospital beds, less testing, and some actually lost their hospital due to for-profit consolidation.

    I read 75% then later 88%. The virus isn’t just a respiratory infection though, there has been recent talk about blood clots and strokes affecting younger patients.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
     
  7. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I get your point (noting you shifted your argument from one suggesting that everyone in NY go back to work). But I would wonder if my city Calabasas relaxed its lockdown, a thousand porkers start coming over from El Lay?

    Already saw this happen earlier a month ago upon the initial lockdown notice when thousands of porkers came down off the highway jamming the main road leading to the beaches in Malibu (which also jams my way to the grocery store).

    Gavin Awesome said that we could still take walks around the neighborhood and do stuff outdoors. I guess it didn't cross his mind that a bunch of stupid fucks would cram the beaches and all the grocery stores along the way! Same goes for the local hiking trails which makes me really mad because now everything is closed!

    Countries like Sweden or Taiwan are highly homogeneous and orderly. Germany is inherently good at mobilizing and it's people crave stable long term leadership by ex-stasi types. Americans simply aren't this way - which has been my observation so far. Unless Americans are willing to accept fines or public caning for stupidity, we don't deserve shit, and get the policy that assumes will we will dumb.

    In the meantime, Georgia will be a good experiment. We should be able to get a lot of data from them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  8. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    Not shifted, just less emphasis, maybe more antibody testing in New York will show that it has become moot, cat's out of the bag, horses have left the barn, etc. Yes, there will be outliers, there always are, but we can't stay shut down until that last hermit gets exposed.
     
  9. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I'll leave these decisions up to New Yorkers. If they feel differently, they can depose their politicians or protest.

    Protest is still an effective means if there are enough people. Hey, we got rid of Gray Davis in California, so it can work. Oh geez. I think I contributed to that effort. It was awesome to see the look on his face on TV, the disgust, the anger, the held back tears when he was deposed.

    So far I am pretty happy in California. Although I would have liked to see rules and guidelines set forth for some businesses (low people density) to continue operating. But again, I get it. Gavin must assume people will be retards so we get nothing, that is until we can ticket oblivious morons who drive slow in the fast lane like what they do in Germany.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  10. gaspasser

    gaspasser Flatulence Maestro

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    Warning: Rant ahead.

    I get the urgency to reopen business. People need to make money to buy food. Georgia and other states are crazy AF making decisions based on gut feelings and are taking a big gamble. My problem with all of this posturing is politicians are gambling with people’s health and lives. If there isn’t a spike in cases then it will be a great victory for them & conspiracy theorists. However, if the bodies start piling up, then Brian Kemp will say “Whoops, I didn’t know it was this infectious!” Look at the death toll. These are people, each number is a soul. I think that this number matters more than dollars. We are already fucked financially. I say f**k the gyms, spas and tattoo parlors.
    As a “front line worker”, if you want to go out and be stupid, I should be able to know who you are and refuse to intubate your dumbass when you get sick. Let Darwinism work. #Staythefuckathome and listen to music like we do anyway.
     
  11. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    We can't live like this much longer unless you prefer socialism. I don't.
     
  12. Taverius

    Taverius Smells like sausages

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    They have to keep making the right decision over and over for the next 8-12 months.

    I'm not sure I'd wholly trust qualified people to do that, and professional conmen definitely not.
     
  13. gaspasser

    gaspasser Flatulence Maestro

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    Well I prefer socialism over Trumpism or death. Either way, our society is heading towards a reckoning. The divisions in the U.S. fall along color and financial lines. These divisions are not subtle anymore and will get to the breaking point as either more people die or start starving. $1200 ain’t shit in many major cities and people will need a whole lot more soon.

    Instead of empathy and solutions, our national leaders (looking at you Trumpybear) offer more division and retarded random thoughts. I wanted so bad yesterday for Birx to start yelling at Trump to STFU. Enough bullshit is enough.
     
  14. Rustin Cohle

    Rustin Cohle FKA jazztherapist

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    Last edited: Apr 24, 2020
  15. bilboda

    bilboda Florida boomer

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    You limit your own world with these minimal socioeconomic racial pseudo divisions. There are untold number of divisions and commonalities. Folks who dream of world takeover use phrases like that. They are for egg heads and wannabees. Live your life according to your principles and let the nitwits flail away futilely at their world order windmills. It's times like these than convince folks that everyone can and will bend to their wills. I mean, that is what we are doing, isn't it? Safely herded into our pens? While our rulers promise to protect us from the big bad wolf?
     
  16. Lyander

    Lyander Official SBAF Equitable Empathizer

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    It's been said many times before and bears saying again:

    There is no vaccine against wilful ignorance.
     
  17. gaspasser

    gaspasser Flatulence Maestro

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    Hopefully you are right bro, but I smell the stink of conspiracy theorist on you and a few others in this thread. I don’t see our rulers promising to protect us from shit. The best and brightest only say #staythefuckathome. That is pretty sad, but that’s what it is. Even worse, our leader, is running a Medicine Show. Don’t forget to try Uncle Donald’s Healing Elixir or go try a fake tan. The healing light and disinfectants are tremendous.
     
  18. Rowethren

    Rowethren Acquaintance

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    This is purely anecdotal but a family friend became unresponsive at home right at the beginning of this and was rushed to hospital. He subsequently tested positive for Corvid-19. We were all told to expect the worst but after being on a ventilator for over 5 week he is now out of ITU and on the mend with seemingly minimal long term organ damage. I can't help but feel he has been incredibly lucky, but he is only in his mid 50s, not in the "high risk" group and reasonable healthy with no underlying illness.

    This demonstrated to me two things which has drastically affected my response to this pandemic. First, that you don't need to be old or infirm to be severely hit by Corvid-19 so no one should take this for granted and assume it will pass them by without consequence. Second, just how easily hospitals could be overwhelmed if you get people occupying critical care beds for such a long period of time meaning we should do anything we can to protect the health care system.
     
  19. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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    Which version of socialism: the original by Marx and Engels? (Which was basically stop being assholes to each other in the name of greed. Not bad right?)

    The version of early European socialists around 1900?

    Do you prefer Lenin? Do you prefer Stalin?

    Do you want socialism for all? Do you want socialism for the poor? Do you want socialism for the rich?

    So socialism, where do we f'ing start?

    If you do not know enough about this -ism just stop.

    Shall I start on liberalism now and tell you how little you know? Seriously, I can and as a cynical European tired of the E.U. and recent global developments (past 4 years) I am becoming grumpier. Maybe I expected too much from humanity, whiskey tango foxtrot.

    P.S. Used to be a hobby because school in NL was too much about the white pages and to little about the grey and black pages. Oh yes the Golden Age was great, just some extreme poverty in a war stricken society and head chopping here and there (East Asia in particular). Skip nuance, simplify up to the point where you make people stupid. Discourage children to ask "why" and years later the grey haired wise people wonder why the young do not care about history and culture. Pure disgust runs through my veins, pure disgust.

    P.P.S. Going to drink my tea again and stay healthy. Too grumpy right now.
     
  20. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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