Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Impossible to tackle the world. Organizations of like minded will work better: NATO for instance.

    As long as people know what the UN actually is. Folks I have spoken to actually think the UN is some sort of benevolent force, like the United Federation of Planets. The difference is that UFP membership is limited and quite restrictive. They don't let just any random species join. Applicants need to adhere to common ideals.

    I'd say in the 21st Century, it pretty much is a zero-sum gain. It's not 500AD in Civilization 5 anymore. Too many people. Not enough room. No cheap clean power... yet. China and India developing and putting shit into the air. The US being too rich buying new iGadgets every year and putting shit into the air. It's amazing the amount of "shit" we get from my in-laws for X-mas every year. We moved from CA to TX during December, so we politely asked for nothing. So the shit streams in during this January, and I would expect February too.

    Only the proper use or better yet, the threat of force can stop orphan creation - and only if the people being policed can commit to not being savages. Serbia came to its senses. Iraq will need another 1000 years. As my son so apted observed, Sunni and Shia are like the Autobots and Decepticons, both of Cybertron.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  2. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    Don't blame the lockdown. In a rare show of humanity from a British Tory government, they almost eliminated on-the-street homelessness by taking people into hotels. This was in the first lockdown there: I don't know that they are doing the same now. Tory compassion tends to be limited to the rich.

    This is one example. Many things are blamed on lockdown, and many reasons are given why lockdown can't work. But many of them are not directly due to lockdown, they are due to bad, or lack of, management of the other stuff.
     
  3. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    It doesn't take an epidemiologist to understand that if people don't meet they can't catch stuff off each other.

    But yes...
    And if they don't, then it is not so much lockdown as lockjoke. And a very bad joke too.
     
  4. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    Maybe you should look at the Scottish NHS statistics regarding the death from deprivation and dramatic spike during the first lockdown.
    And sure government can take care of all of us, with printed money for unlimited time.
    Surviving maybe the endgame for older people with health conditions already. But people who are 20-50 have kids, jobs they lost, savings for kids college that cannot make anymore. Businesses they lost in the most dramatic ever transfer of ownership to the wealthy.

    That is becoming the discussion between people who can afford to be inside almost indefinitely, either do not have to work, retired like me, or can wok from home, doing administrative or creative work, and the people who sustain them.
    People working in the food distribution and selling, meatpackers, factories, hospitals, Amazon warehouses etc. shop owners on the streets in my neighborhood they do not go to shelters.

    My wife works is a psychologist, some of the clients have addition problem. She has a composite sketch of the people who lives are destroyed by the comfortable: someone who is sober or clean for a year, six months, got his own room is subsidized housing, gets his ass out of bed 7AM and goes to a low paying job where he meets people, and survives day by day. Then the job is gone. Watching TV , and the walls will send this person to the street to get something to forget about all this shit that is so good for him. They are not f'ing audiophiles.
    And she works in the hospital the building almost empty , the biggest teaching hospital in our "overwhelmed" health care.

    And by the way, the government did not create one additional ICU bed since the pandemic started. Why should they if lockdowns are the only game in town.
    This discussion does not make any sense anymore, people who can afford to be locked down will be for lockdowns for 5 more years.
     
  5. dasman66

    dasman66 Self proclaimed lazy ass - friend

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    Rt - that's the stated reasons we have lockdowns, isn't it? To reduce the rate of transmission and "flatten the curve" so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. Here is a site that calculates/graphs Rt by US State over time. It is fairly easy to compare states that have been in complete lockdown vs states in partial vs states with no lockdown.

    Only looking at states that I'm up to speed on:
    • PA has been very restrictive for a long time. Next door, I don't think Ohio has ever had a total lockdown and I believe they were fairly late to the game for mask mandates. People here travelled to Ohio for haircuts, restaurants, shopping, sporting events, etc. PA only opened restaurants to partial capacity a few weeks ago. The Rt's of PA vs OH are very similar over time.
    • I have family in TN, I'm told that they have never locked down and that mask wearing is still sporadic. You could exchange their graph for PA's graph and I don't think anyone would know. (in fact, I would say that PA is slightly worse than TN over time).
    • States that don't look so good (now or over time), but that I have no idea what their policies have been: VT, WA, HI.
    Obviously, I'm only looking at a couple states and I assume there are examples in the opposite direction. My point is... the discussions related to whether statewide lockdowns are beneficial need to be rooted in some sort of comparative study. This is the only way to understand if there is a benefit to widespread lockdowns. Without comparative data, the discussions are based on emotion, anecdotal evidence, and what your chosen media outlet pushes on you as "the truth".

    Final comment, the person overseeing PA's covid policy has just been appointed to a high-level federal position in the Department of Health. Expect PA's policies to be pushed as a model across the country.
     
  6. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    Regarding lockdown effectiveness, Australia has been pretty hardcore. Take a look (via your preferred source) at their numbers.
     
  7. Lyander

    Lyander Official SBAF Equitable Empathizer

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    Theoretical situation:

    There is a theoretical south-east Asian country that, in a previous election that might have taken place, elected a strongman-type authoritarian president who wooed just enough people through abject populism and fear-mongering surrounding drug users to take the win. It didn't help that their theoretical opponents weren't very much better. Many theoretical individuals theoretically criticise this theoretical authoritarian for their allegedly apparent dictatorial inclinations, ostensibly stoking the flames of anti-intellectualism already apparently smouldering due to pronounced class divides and a distinct sense of "otherness" to those who wear elitism.

    The theoretical armed forces of that theoretical country reveal that filthy commies are actively recruiting students in major universities and that supposed government theoretically terminates an accord that bars state forces from entering campuses, opening the possibility of using said forces to impose the alleged government's own beliefs on some of the most vocal centers of criticism against this hypothetical entity's policies.

    This totally didn't happen btw. Just a theoretical situation.

    .... I shouldn't have woken up today.
     
  8. dasman66

    dasman66 Self proclaimed lazy ass - friend

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    Their numbers are impressive, but I don't have an understanding of what their lockdown/restriction history is. Other than restricting travel into/out of the country, right now their restrictions appear pretty lax.
     
  9. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    They and New Zealand have had very agressive international travel restrictions, but like you I am not aware of what their internal efforts look like.

    Well stated. A comparative study however much more difficult than many realize. For example I live in New Mexico, but my county is right next to El Paso (city and county). New Mexico and Texas have had significantly different lockdown/restrictions, but because of the proximity, commuting, and general population mixing between us and El Paso how would you classify and account for how/when/where of the effectiveness of these procedures? How do you do this on a national level? Also how do you evaluate and account for differing level(s) of compliance? Difficult and possibly impracticable questions for any practical comparative study.
     
  10. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    I have family there and from their descriptions of the situation they've been in lockdown pretty much permanently. But, given that everything's relative, I don't know their actual level of lockdown compared to others. Their numbers are impressive though.
     
  11. rlow

    rlow A happy woofer

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    I’m sure this has likely been discussed previously, but in the US, what is up with the stimulus cheques that goes to so many people, whether they are employed or not or what they make/made (up to $99k I think?)? If the Liberal government up here in Canada did that they would have been absolutely crucified by the Conservative opposition.

    Our aid was almost entirely targeted at those that lost work, couldn’t obtain work, or who’s business was impacted substantially by the pandemic.

    My wife and I are middle income earners and we’ve received $0 from the Govt. My brother who is single and works in grocery store has received $0. My parents, one of which still works part time, has received $0 (they receive Canada Pension however, but it’s not nearly as much as our response benefit). My other family who work and didn’t lose their jobs and don’t make anything close to $75k received nothing. The only people I know who received pandemic money was my nephew who lost his job.

    Why the cheques for everyone with no consideration for job status and income level (if you're still working and making $50-100k, do you really need a free cheque?)
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  12. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    I think the reasoning is that the more people get free money, the more will be spent on "stuff" hence saving more businesses. But I agree, people not in trouble shouldn't be paid.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  13. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    Yes to everything. But still, separating people necessarily prevents contagion. I know, I know: I'm one of the privileged ones. Not only am I not directly financially imapacted, being retired anyway, but I have not minded the isolation that much. I do realise that not everybody feels that way, and not everybody can turn to music or the internet, and not everybody has a loner mental profile they can easily switch into without pain.

    I'm going out just a bit these days. If I have to switch back to lockdown (India seems to be doing unbelievably and mysteriously well compared to UK, USA, etc) I will. If it has to be done...
     
  14. Stuff Jones

    Stuff Jones Friend

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    Is there strong evidence of lockdown effectiveness? If yes, is there evidence that the benefits outweigh the costs? I've not seen either, which of course does not mean the evidence doesnt exist.

    This extensive though perhaps biased collection of lockdown research finds very thin evidence of lockdown effectiveness.

    https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/

    It will be interesting to see how history judges our new pandemic response of quarantining the healthy. My personal suspicion is that it wont be judged well. Assuming lockdowns have some effectiveness, I suspect that a more targeted approach - protecting more vulnerable and letting the less vulnerable live normal lives - would have achieved most of the mortality reduction of full lockdowns with only a small fraction of the costs.

    This article explains part of the lockdown orthodoxy: https://www.thebellows.org/the-moral-austerity-trap/
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  15. dasman66

    dasman66 Self proclaimed lazy ass - friend

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    That would happen if we had true fiscal conservatives in US Congress, but we don't. They are just a slightly lesser level of free-spenders than the Dems.

    Conservative is relative...
     
  16. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    And this judgement by history would start right away the day governments would say: ok we are back to normal. That's why it is unlikely to happen in years. In Canada functioning parliaments (provincial and federal). access to real numbers under the FOI act, that's government nightmare. That's why Trudeau is talking elections in the middle of COVID crisis.
     
  17. Hands

    Hands Overzealous Auto Flusher - Measurbator

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    Yes, there is evidence to suggest temporary lockdowns to curb spread are effective. Yes, studies cover at which point benefits may or may not outweigh costs. That you haven’t seen this means you didn’t do your due diligence before asking.

    And, yes, bias might be one tag line to include with something from AIER. Maybe we stick to more reputable sources of info. You know, ones that don’t actively discourage social distancing or doubt the efficacy of masks.
     
  18. dasman66

    dasman66 Self proclaimed lazy ass - friend

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    Can you post a few links? I've only found one recent study (and its only the abstract), everything else I've come across I question based on the outlet making the claim (ie., AIER).
     
  19. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    I have to say I have never seen any study that could be used as a simple and reasonably definitive "proof" that temporary lockdowns do not work. But things that are presented as temporary, should probably be questioned or examined after 11 months. So I have been trying to find studies that would strongly suggest lockdowns work.
    Reuters gave it their best shot in Nov 2020 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-lockdowns-idUSKBN2842WS.
    The title is: "Fact check: Studies show COVID-19 lockdowns have saved lives". Of course it s for people who read headlines only be cause the article is not that convincing.
    They quote opinions, mostly opinions, on both sides. But it all breaks down when the link to their own piece from June 2020 where as the evidence that lockdowns save lives they quote one of the authors of the Imperial College Report saying that lockdowns saved lives comparing to the Imperial Model predictions. So the single most incompetent statistical model in history, full of idiotic assumptions, was used as a benchmark against which "saving lives" is measured. I am not presenting it as a definitive anything, I would like to find better studies.
    EDIT: And yes read the Imperial College model, not only the conclusions, still have it somewhere on my HD.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  20. Kunlun

    Kunlun cat-alyzes cat-aclysmic cat-erwauling - Friend

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    Just to drop in and be a mensch:

    Here's a paper attempting to analyze the effects of locking down on covid transmission in different countries. Lockdowns were associated with lower rates of transmission, and this effect persisted for at least 20 days from the start of the lockdown. No doubt further studies will be forthcoming.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268966/

    Hope that's helpful.
     

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