Putin's War With Ukraine (and democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.)

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Feb 25, 2022.

  1. james444

    james444 Mad IEM modding wizard level 99

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    Unfortunately (in hindsight), there never was an actual vote for Ukraine to join at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. Such a vote would have had to be unanimous, but mainly Germany and France (and a few others) didn't want to provoke Russia back then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit#Summary_of_3_April
    The controversy that led to the Maidan Uprising and fleeing of Ukraine's president Yanukovych, however, was not about the aspirations for NATO membership, but about the non-military EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (which Yanukovych refused to sign).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan#Initial_causes
     
  2. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    It's less NATO than Ukraine turning their back on Russia, wanting to be more democratic, and looking toward the West (not all people in Ukraine, but at least the majority, and especially toward the Ukrainian speaking west). Not sure even if NATO slammed the door shut, it would have mattered for Putin. He would have found another excuse: neo-nazis, martians, etc.
     
  3. roshambo123

    roshambo123 Friend

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    To my understanding, NATO slamming the door probably would have accelerated his plans. The other objectives such as unblocking the North Crimean Canal and nerfing Ukraine's growth by grabbing their energy reserves in the East and South, would have been less risky. Additionally, NATO saying fuckyou could have hurt resolve of the Ukrainian people to fight if they felt alone.
     
  4. james444

    james444 Mad IEM modding wizard level 99

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    You're absolutely right. And the majority looking toward the West has steadily been increasing since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. At the same time, Putin's popularity in Ukraine has been declining, with pro-Russian parties having trouble to reach 20% of votes recently. One of the real reasons for Putin's wrath.

    Btw, it's part of Russian propaganda to portray Ukraine as if it were divided in the middle, a Ukrainian speaking west and a Russian speaking east. But in reality, it looks like this:

    [​IMG]

    (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Language)
     
  5. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    No, it's pretty much divided down the middle, or at least that generalization is more true. That map reminds me of those US electoral maps by county where even California looks mostly red (republican). Also not sure what "majority" language means here - first language in home? Language of ethnic origin? Language of local government? Language of local commerce?
     
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  6. DigMe

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    oh ok, well I was reading the statement from NATO that indicated a desire for Ukraine to join.

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm


    “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process; we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions, including that each partner will be judged on its own merits. “

     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
  7. james444

    james444 Mad IEM modding wizard level 99

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    "Majority language" means the first language spoken by a majority of people. If you think it's "pretty much divided down the middle", you're simply falling for Russian propaganda. Here's from official Ukrainian census data:

    Share of Russian first language per oblast (administrative division):
    [​IMG]

    Share of ethnic Ukrainians per oblast (administrative division):
    [​IMG]

    (source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demografie [German])
     
  8. roshambo123

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  9. BenjaminBore

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    Last edited: Mar 9, 2022
  10. roshambo123

    roshambo123 Friend

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    How much support for Russia is there among the majority green seats? As that is Zelenskyy's party my assumption is "none." The orange, red and light blue also appear to be anti-Russia, doing 20 seconds wikipedia research. Correct me if I'm wrong
     
  11. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    We've been under high-alert for ransomware bullshit for two weeks now. I am talking about malicious software that checks the region tag in Windows, and only activates when it detects you are outside of Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, or other states beholden to Putin. Yes, some ransomware actually does this!

    BTW, there's a lot of QAanon crap, taken from Russian/China propaganda, like that the USA has a dozen or more bioweapons labs in Ukraine. I've been pretty accommodating of "views", but in light of the current situation, and also because I'm pissed that our nation's IT infrastructure has been under siege from Russia and China (to a lesser extent) nation-state hackers. Examples of bullshit below. Yes, weirdo politicians and alternative-facts nutjobs are picking up on this stuff and treating it as real.

    https://iz.ru/1015676/2020-05-26/na...-laboratorii-ssha-s-osobo-opasnymi-patogenami
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202105/1223060.shtml

    I think it's fair to say that we've been in a low level information war for some time, regardless of the events of Ukraine. Going forward, any Qanon, 911 conspiracy, Putin is good, Adrenochrome nonsense will be treated as traitor bullshit.
     
  12. atomicbob

    atomicbob dScope Yoda

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    Exactly! It's time for this crap to end.
     
  13. roshambo123

    roshambo123 Friend

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    SBAF has been described as a private club so I'm totally supportive of this, let the lunatics talk outside. However, it's worth reflecting the world is in a dangerous place testing the limits of economic, cyber and information warfare as appropriate responses. We should at times acknowledge the insanity outside the window, and be prepared to revise views based on new information.
     
  14. BenjaminBore

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    I think this is that kind of place already. Unfortunately it's not as simple as taking in new information. The way that information is framed, the timing of that information, attempts at conflation, and any whataboutery are part of information warfare. Manipulations of truth used to shift sentiment in a favourable direction.

    Bad actors range from russian assets, useful idiots, to the opportunistic. For example I now feel Tulsi Gabbard fits into one of these categories. I've had reservations about her but having just watched some recent interviews with Tucker Carlson on Ukraine it's pretty clear. What she is saying is arguably true but she's making these criticisms about Biden and NATO while Putin is murdering innocent people. Framing it in terms of what they can do to stop it, while painting them as corrupt, as if they're the responsible party. Regardless of how the USA, NATO, EU could have read the situation better and may have been able to prevent this outcome ultimate responsibility for attacking a peaceful nation is unequivocally Putin's.

    The final confirmation was when she referred to an unprovoked invasion as "this conflict, this war" which is deflective reframing language being used by pro russia individuals. She also appears to be a regular, which is a red flag in itself given Carlson's track record.

    Insidious manipulations by proxy infiltrating public discourse must be guarded against.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2022
  15. DigMe

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    100% on that. I have also taken a look at the amped-up bioweapons lab accusations that trended yesterday. Every Twitter accoint that was amplifying this early was less than a year old or had an obvious Russia connection. Some had names with “war” and “intelligence” in them. All were clearly twisting facts. I have been a Qanon watcher for several years and they have definitely been manipulated by Russian propagandists without a doubt.
     
  16. Wilewarer

    Wilewarer Almost "Made"

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    Democrats in general figured this out about Tulsi Gabbard a while ago (easier because of how disliked her views were in the party), which is why Tucker Carlson is about the only high-profile place for her to show up.

    As best I can tell the cyber-propaganda actually calmed down a bit when the actual war and then the economic war started. Most of the paid motive is gone when the checks can't be trusted to clear, and a lot of the "useful idiot" types are either not dumb enough to fail to see the invasion for what it is, or else are kept quieter by everyone else being much less inclined to let things slide. Not totally gone by any means (the hacking certainly isn't), but it seems easier to figure out what's what for now.

    Wonder what this level of clarity 6 to 8 years ago would've gotten us.
     
  17. BenjaminBore

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    In the UK the same people that spread disinfo on Brexit, and then Covid, have suddenly shifted gears to Putin apologists, and now anti clean energy (just as energy sanctions are incoming). They seem to be part of a network, Steve Bannon having met with many of them.

    Some raised the alarm about online disinformation in 2014 when Crimea and Donbass were invaded, then more in 2016 with Brexit, then more still with Trump. But mainstream media wouldn't touch it and intelligence services were hamstrung (depending where it was and when, and who was in power). The reasons why are complex, disappointing, and yet to be fully understood.

    This Oligarch funded Russian company is responsible for the online campaign:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency

    I'm only familiar with Gabbard from the Primaries, and could see she was treated as pariah. But she was smart and convincing, and used the truth to her advantage. But something didn't sit right about her. I've since become aware of what Hillary Clinton said in reference to her, and this morning saw her with Carlson come up as an example of the type of propaganda being used. I looked up some of their interviews and if you're familiar with misinfo tactics it's pretty blatant given the circumstances.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2022
  18. Wilewarer

    Wilewarer Almost "Made"

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    I suppose I'd make a distinction between people who obviously are just in it to advance a foreign power's interests, and people who will look for any angle to attack a specific political party because they dislike it and will never give it credit. I think of them as something different even if there are often very strong links - the second group would probably still be motivated to do what they're doing without the first one existing. But yeah, it's disinfo both ways, you're right.
     
  19. BenjaminBore

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    Even those without direct links have been manipulated and amplified at opportune times. For example an opposition leader in the UK used documents leaked by Russia to attack the incumbent party. Russia was in favour of the incumbent party, it was leaked to sow discord: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-of-papers-saying-nhs-is-for-sale-says-reddit
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2022
  20. roshambo123

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    My meaning was more to say that if we ban people who express certain views, then we need to be prepared that ultimately time may prove we were wrong for doing so. You're reducing opinion diversity and creating more of an echo chamber. What's good for SBAF isn't necessarily good for the world. Freedom of speech is tolerating opinions you don't want to tolerate.
     

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