Putin's War With Ukraine (and democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.)

Depends on Putin's willingness/ capability to mobilize the economy for war. He certainly does not care about how much the average Russian will have to suffer to make good on losses.

Wondering whether the next Marshal Zhukov is on the rise. I'd think heads are rolling because of this, leaving the ruthless and effective to take command. I'm sure Putin has no problem showering bribes the way Hitler did with his General Staff.

Edit: On the hand remember this? Maybe soon to come again? https://taskandpurpose.com/bulletpoints/russian-mercenaries-syria-firefight/

 

Not disagreeing with this, but worth pointing out the official line is still that there is no war. If he plans to mobilize his economy (what is left of it) for war, he will have to admit there is a war and that it is not going well. That will hurt him more than any Russian casualties ever could.

 

I feel like picking up the phone to Putin and giving him a piece of my mind!

"Oy, you! Putin! All my life I have grown up with the "fact" of two beyond-super military powers: America and Russia. The tension and stress of this has been the axis on which most of the world has turned. It has also been the platform on which America has built much of its hubris.

And now this. More than a month now, and one single country not conquered. Generals dead, troupes wasted, lying about in the road with piles of tanks etc!

OK, OK, so you spread some terror, killed a bunch of "innocent" civilians, committed some atrocities. Causing a vast amount of human suffering might have been your real aim, I guess. Because... Other than that, it really is a pathetic show!"​

I'm not going to do that.

1. Because I keep thinking, "After the cannon fodder he's going to send in the real guys.*"

2. Nukes. We assume they are real and still capable of world destruction. Better I don't make him even more cross.

3. I haven't got his number.


*i heard that one of the dead generals was actually in charge of a crack anything-but-cannon-fodder unit?

 

Maybe. He is still looking for more conscripts though.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/01/russia-military-army-conscripts-draft/

 

One point I haven't heard made is if Putin's war denial campaign makes his nuclear weapon use less likely.

Chemical you might deny but a nuclear blast would be hard to conceal or blame on Ukraine, who has no nuclear weapons. At any rate, to maintain the "no war" line, he'd be forced to deny it, which doesn't work for the de-escalation doctrine which would be the entire point of their use, to force surrender.

 

Go Ukraine! I feel like we should start an SBAF Ukraine cheer squad. @YMO is banned for too much chest hair sorry bud,

 

What Putin says for domestic consumption and what he says to the rest of the world are not the same, and of course the rest of the world (maybe not China) knows that, and Putin certainly knows that too.

I'm watching Sergeĭ Lavrov's denials of atrocities, and can only think how much he reminds me of Baghdad Bob. We should call him Moscow Mike.

In spite of the fact Putin has surrounded himself with yes men and is paranoid as f***, he is probably one of the few people in Russia allowed to watch AP and Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, MSNBC, Fox et al. I think by now he probably knows the yes men were a bad idea. We'll see how he deals with that.

 

Wow Putin is such a shitty dictator. It actually makes the situation much more terrifying for Ukraine and the rest of the world because what he does next is less predictable or rational especially as he gets desperate or his leadership is possibly challenged.

He has done more damage to Russia's world standing than anything I know of in just 5 weeks. He's killed thousands of Russian soldiers, fucked up the Russian economy and destroyed economic partnerships, lost millions of dollars in military machinery and materials, created a horrible image of the Russian people especially in the images of rape, torture and murder in Bucha that have just come out. We hated Russia in the Cold War but that was mostly irrational fear. Putin has given the entire world serious reasons to hate his country and he has accomplished absolutely nothing. (of course we all know that ordinary Russians don't want this, but there is an image of the country as a whole that he is creating and it is not good at all)

If his goal was to solidify his border security and weaken the West, well the rest of the world is more unified than its ever been since WWII and perhaps even stronger considering how many countries are in NATO, many of whom are now increasing defense spending to meet NATO demands when they were not before.

In short, in just 5 weeks he has killed thousands of Russian soldiers, thrown away millions of dollars, fucked up his economy, unified the rest of the world against him for probably decades, increased NATO military defense spending, created a horrible image of his country with even a Nazi like symbol to brand it with "Z". Even if you look at what he's done from the perspective or goals of a tyrannical dictator this is such a failure.

On a separate note, something that I don't think is very well known that I heard in a documentary about WWII is that HItler did not think England would declare war on Germany when he attacked Poland, he was surprised and horrified. Even if he wanted to start a large war eventually, he didn't want to then. Which is a similar situation to where we are now, who knows what Putin thinks NATO would do if he went further than Ukraine. WWII also started very quietly, no one thought there would be another world war. This feels so much like WWII to me on many levels including just the nature of the war being a ground war between two countries fought with tanks and airplanes and artillery and machine guns. The biggest difference is that Russia is not under a new fired up leadership, Putin has been in power for a long time now, which makes things much more stable. I would be a lot more worried if Putin had just come to power and then done this.

 

Couple key differences between WWII:

- Poland and France got crushed fast and weren't getting tons of weapons from the US to resist
- There wasn't NATO
- The US wasn't a serious threat
- Economic sanctions wouldn't have been as crippling
- There wasn't internet media

 

Oh! I always understood the 1812 overture as Napoleon retreating before he got there. I see I was wrong. Again.

I wish you'd explained that to Boris & Co!

Is this going to go on for ever? I have this horrible feeling that Sputum is in it for as long as it takes to reduce Ukraine to dust. And not too quickly, as that wouldn't hurt enough.

 

Will be interesting to see if Finland (and probably less likely Sweden) decide now might be a good time to join NATO. Last I saw a majority there are in support of it now.

Yeah, Putrid says Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, but I think he actually considers them untermenschen like Hitler did with so many. I fully expect him to come out of this with a war crimes indictment. Not likely he would ever stand trial, but it would limit his future travel opportunities greatly.

 

Would NATO allow it?

 

Pretty sure they would allow it without question eventually. Whether they would allow it to be "fast tracked" while the war in Ukraine is ongoing is probably less likely. It would certainly be seen as an escalation by Putin, but I don't think I would completely rule it out.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ato-arctic-after-ukraine-invasion-2022-04-04/

 

I think Finland would be the serious one, having been considered in the USSR's sphere of influence and briefly part of the Russian Empire. I'd expect Sweden would be less escalatory since it lacks a border with Russia and cultural claims would be very thin.

 

Turns out the ”US biowarfare labs in Ukraine” narrative was started by a Qanon guy and amplified by Tucker Carlson, the Kremlin, Alex Jones, Steve Bannon, etc… All the evidence is here. Yeah, Tucker Carlson - the guy with “facts” who is “not down with the Globalistic Neo Liberal Crusade.” The Qanon loser was really excited about Tucker coming on board with his made-up shit.

https://www.adl.org/blog/unmasking-...-the-viral-ukrainian-biolab-conspiracy-theory

 

i think we’ve answered the “somehow.”