Putin's War With Ukraine (and democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.)

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Feb 25, 2022.

  1. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I'm totally with the reasoning, similar sentiments expressed on the Bill Maher when he had Fiona Hill on the show.
    However, all this gets thrown out the window when columns of tanks and APCs cross the border and head toward Kyiv hoping to take out Zelenskyy, the rightfully elected president of Ukraine. I could commiserate with Putin at one point, but f**k that guy. Being butthurt about your once glorious empire being reduced to less than what it was is no reason to inflict violence upon your neighbor who you claim to have a shared spirit.

    Those photos of destruction, whether Ukrainian or Russian are painful to see. This is horrible. Horrible, sad, brings me to tears. I am praying that evil be stopped.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2022
  2. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    I'm with you, and I don't view it as any kind of justification. Putin is living in a lost era, one that he'll never reclaim. How many have to die for his lack of self-esteem. f**k him. He could have made Russia something, instead he sucked it dry and crushed his own people.

    It's unjust, tragic, and upsetting. They don't deserve this.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2022
  3. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    Interesting article here. Of particular interest to me is this comment and I'm wondering if anyone has references as to whether or not this is correct (if it is, then we only have ourselves to blame - a Russia in NATO would have guaranteed peace for....ever?).

    "He recalled how coldly then President Bill Clinton responded to his query, not long after he became President of Russia in 2000, about whether Moscow could ever be a member of NATO"

    https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.html
     
  4. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Well, I think it's pretty obvious he's gone nuts by now. This isn't cold and calculating evil villain image that he's been trying to perpetuate anymore. This is descent into madness. I'm sure he's fuming at the unexpected at the lack of results from his army from the Ukrainian resistance, the everyday people lining up to get rifles, the grandmas in the basement making Molotov cocktails.

    I sincerely wish that he comes back to earth before he goes even more bonkers and decides to fire off nukes. Or that his own inner circle gets rid of him. Madmen backed into a corner like this are especially dangerous. I feel Putin would rather see Ukraine flattened, turned to dust, than lose it to the West (which he already has). I fear in the end, everyone loses, the Russians, the Ukrainians, and the world.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 27, 2022
  5. nishan99

    nishan99 Friend

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    In this latest nuke threat to the NATO you can clearly see the faces of the two ministers are not happy about the mention of the nuke arsenal at all, especially the defense minister on the right looks like he was swallowing a bile at the end of video.


    I am just praying for a bad ass middle eastern grade coup will happen .
     
  6. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    What about the fact that #4 and #6 over there in the corner know that Putin may at any time throw them into the pool with the sharks with laser beams mounted on their heads? :rolleyes:
    upload_2022-2-27_14-59-47.png

    P.S.

    I suspect Putin is mentioning nukes because he knows CIA / USAF is helping the Ukrainians with recon, surveillance, AWACs, etc. Transponders for Forte10, Forte11, and Forte12 got turned off. They were on a few days ago, last I saw was yesterday Forte 11 flying around the Black Sea, peeking into Crimea, South Ukraine (Odessa), and Moldova.

    The Forte are the MQ-9 Reapers.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2022
  7. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    @purr1n It definitely seems that way. 0-Nuclear threats in three days. Due to "aggressive statements". Just an insane, or desperate, level of escalation. Things are not going as he planned.

    This article continues in the vein of the one you shared, including comments by people who've worked with him https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7e34e962-9726-11ec-bcb9-65f2c5c7f961

    No one wants this fight but him, no one's heart is in it. There have been a number of reports of Russian soldiers not even knowing they were invading Ukraine until they had, believing they were on training exercises or going to defend Donbass, and I'd bet that some of these reports of vehicle breakdowns are self sabotage. Groups of civilians have stood in the way of tanks and the drivers have turned around. A few oligarchs have even publicly condemned it, even Trump, and the look from those generals during that Nuclear threat said a thousand words.

    With each day Ukraine holds out support builds for them, and doubt in Putin weighs heavier. They're fighting with guile and steel, causing heavy losses and even defeating Chechen Special Forces, and they have a defenders advantage. There's a thing in military doctrine that says you need a 3:1 ratio of forces to overcome the defender, and apparently that's 5:1 for urban settings. Zelenskyy is making every move he can. His people are inspired, and lining up for weapons and training, and he's inspired people around the world with his leadership and backbone. Something most in the west can only wish for. Finally other governments are starting to take bigger steps to support them. Ultimately they may not be able to win, but they have made the cost of invasion severe enough that Putin may have blinked. Continuing will harm his aims more than having taken Ukraine could have ever helped.

    Could his uncharacteristic behaviour be an act, a manipulation that's not exactly a stretch for an Intelligence Officer. In any negotiation if one party believes the other to be unreasonable then they will give more ground. The nuclear threats were made on the same day as they dropped conditions to meet and hold talks with Ukraine, now on the Belarus border. But while the Nuclear threats on their own I would take as sabre rattling to spook the West, even that seems crazy.

    Either way he's turned the world against him, where before they had tolerated him. If his inner circle were wise one of them should go for promotion right about now.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  8. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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  9. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    It's heartbreaking to watch. But there are a few things worth noting.

    This is one of the things she was referring to:
    The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
    The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994 to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.

    The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

    If they still had their leftover nukes from the USSR this wouldn't be happening. This is why smaller states would want to chase nuclear weaponization. To top it off Belarus have just exited their non-nuclear status.

    What Johnson said about the no fly zone is true. No fly zones have to be enforced. Which means not just shooting down Russian aircraft, but taking out any anti-air vehicles in range. Which would mean entering and attacking Russian territory. Which would be the start of WW3.

    This may come as a surprise to anyone outside the UK but London and the Tory party are up to their necks in Russian money and influence. They're the least likely to take real action. There has been an endless string of things the Tories have done to chip away at democracy in recent years. Below are just a few of them.
    • They refused to investigate Russian interference in Brexit and elections, and tried to suppress what had been discovered.
    • Have accepted millions from Russian Oligarchs, that we know of.
    • Let Evgeny Lebvedev into the House of Lords. Which is like letting the wolf into the chicken coup. (I shit you not. Lebvedev has a pet wolf.......wait for it.......named Boris).
    • Turned a blind eye to London being the center of the world for Russian money laundering
    • They're pushing through new laws to suppress protests (it's currently with the House of Lords but it doesn't look good).
    • They're attempting to politicise the appointment of supreme court judges and the election campaign watchdog (who caught them breaking election law).
    • They're also currently in the process of trying to prevent judicial review (which is the only legal means for the public to hold government to account).
    • They've already politicised hirings at public broadcasters and regulatory bodies like ofcom.
    • Have successfully attacked the BBC. Now cowed, and diminished.
    • The cherry on top is they have exploited the emergency contracts process during the pandemic and have bled the state of billions of pounds via VIP lanes for deliberately overpriced and even duff or non-existent medical PPE, Tests, and Tracking. To the benefit of themselves, their party, and their donors.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  10. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    Wow. She expected Boris to take in several minutes and answer it.

    Actually, he did better than I'd expect. And I guess he was right.

    I think that maybe this exact conversation was misunderstood by a London friend of mine who told me that Brits could soon be shooting down Russian planes, and yes, WW3 would necessarily be the outcome. Unless there is something else.

    Should other European countries get directly involved? I don't know. It is much easier to answer the question should Putin be allowed to do wtf he wants, although it turns out to be the same question.

    Desperate times.
     
  11. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    It's crazy. Russians fired into Kharkiv city center. This makes no sense because that city has many russian speakers (who call it Kharkov) and has been the site of a lot a pro-russian protests.

    I guess Putin's plan is to kill them all.
     
  12. BenjaminBore

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    It looks like Putin expected to waltz in for a quick and relatively bloodless victory. When that didn't happen they started widening their boundaries in terms of targets. They are known to have the best artillary in the world, and their army is built around it. I expect that the longer they fail to make inroads into the cities the more it will become a siege at the expense of civilian life.

    Learning more about Putin's past military exploits in recent days I've come to believe that he would have no problem killing indiscriminately on a large scale to achieve his goals. He is committed to restoring Russia to it's former glory, and the destruction of the democratic powers that threaten it, by any means necessary. He's an extremist.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I know Igor at Verum isn't a popular dude and many here still think he's a POS regardless of his apology. (Yes, the road to redemption won't be easy given the crap he's pulled). However this shit got more real:

    Hello mr. Chen. Thanks for reaching me. I'm now located in Kharkov - it's a 2 million city near the Russian border. It's the epicenter of the fight against Russian invasion and 2 hours ago a missile damaged an administrative building near me. So I'm focused now on absolutely other things, but if life will allow me - i'll write you back when situation will change.
    P.S.

    Anyone want to buy missiles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Lots of fake ones, but I think these two may be legit:


    --

    Look for your
    "All up-to-date information about the dead and prisoners of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine"
    (warning: graphic content):
    https://t.me/s/rf200_now/79

    --

    I hate social media, but one good thing it's done is make war more real. I am disgusted. We all know Putin won't stop until everyone is dead. Putin's lost whatever remained of his humanity. I pray that somehow Putin can regain a bit of his humanity or that someone in Russia can be brave enough to stop him. @zerodeefex will be happy to permaban any remaining Putin apologists. It's so clear now that this isn't the "West's fault". It's Putin going bonkers over the Ukrainians telling him to f**k off, that they wanted to be like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and be part of the EU, instead of sucking Putin's dick.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  14. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    The personal testimony of my bishop last night, Archbishop Daniel (Zelinsky), literally brought tears to my eyes. Vladika is the real deal and the closest to a "spiritual father" I have ever had:



    Today I see the French finance minister boasting that our "total economic/financial war on Russia" is in fact provoking a bonafide economic collapse. I wonder if we have learned the lesson of Versaille. Just how far are we willing to push Russia, the country with the largest nuclear stockpile? Just what price are we willing to pay, whatever the righteousness of our (EU or any other) cause? Anger is a natural and completely good reaction to the real evil being perpetuated on the people of Ukraine. My honest hope and sincere prayer is that everyone on all sides have the maturity and vision to calculate the real costs before it is too late.
     
  15. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    My only hope is that someone high up in the Russian military has enough sense to stop a nuclear launch. My fantasy is that someone has enough sense to put a bullet in Putin before that. I don't know man...shit is fucked up...

    I have friends in both Russia and Ukraine and family in Bulgaria (former Warsaw pact country now NATO member). All this is stressing me big time.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  16. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    Evening footage coming in is showing Kharkiv getting absolutely lit up. Christ, what a tragedy. Multiple clips in this thread:
    https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1498726404661432327

    This is what it looks like being fired at by a tank, and further evidence of deliberate attacks on civilians: https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1498703033391325184

    The below map, if it isn't misdirection, shows two things. Firstly they haven't made anywhere near the progress they had planned. Secondly and more importantly that they intend to invade Moldova.
    (Alexander Lukashenko Dictator of Belarus pictured).
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  17. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Not saying actions shouldn't be taken, but statements like this are a bad idea and only back Putin into more a corner. Shouldn't diplomats be looking for solutions, avenues where Putin can save face, instead of confirming his narrative: "You see, the West is out to destroy us?"

    Anyway, f**k Putin. The thing I worry the most about with my job is waking up to a Putin state-sponsored cyberattack. So much of time is spent worrying about this, going on for years now. Sure the "hacker" part of me thinks that SolarWinds attack was brilliant. The other part of me asks: why can't you f'ing act like decent human beings? No wonder all these ex-Soviet states look toward the West. They want to be decent, not shitty.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022
  18. BenjaminBore

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    I think this is the best possible outcome where Putin is concerned. Short of a coup d'eta. But what could that look like, he won't walk away empty handed. In addition to ensuring Ukraine doesn't join NATO or the EU he might want to carve another piece out of Ukraine, or have some authority over it. If his terms are met would it just be to buy time for another more successful attempt. Thus far the world has shown him that no one will physically come to Ukraine's aid.
     
  19. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Hey, but that's how diplomacy goes right? No side of a compromise really likes the terms of the compromise, but it's better than -no- compromise. This is something I recently internalized by watching Star Trek Lower Decks:
     
  20. BenjaminBore

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    That's good. I'm of the same mind, generally speaking. If no one walks away happy, but they can live with it all the same, then it's a good outcome.

    I could swear the first time I was exposed to the concept was DS9 or TNG. Either Quark or Picard had to mediate a deal or dispute and said something similar.

    I guess my concern is that in these circumstances it would just be kicking the can down the road, the ultimate outcome worse. A bully will continue to bully unless confronted. But I guess, at best, it all comes down to who can hold their nerve the longest in a game of nuclear-chicken. At worst everyone will out of fear continue to watch as a nuclear tyrant runs roughshod over the world.

    On the other hand if time is bought, well anything can happen. Putin may not be around long enough to cause any more trouble. If I were an Oligarch I'd be planning that right now. No, scratch that. The plans would have been drawn up long ago as contingency. Alternatively the West's play could be that by punishing Russia in every way imaginable, short of direct intervention, the invasion of Ukraine will ultimately lead to his downfall. The heavier the price he pays the more likely that outcome. Ukraine as sacrificial lamb.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2022

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