Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    The pinnacle of evolution will be reached when viruses develop altruism and environmental conscience.

    Hmm. Maybe they already have...
     
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  2. fp627

    fp627 Friend

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    Correct me if I'm wrong now, but I remember reading somewhere that every single model that has been used to predict global warming hasn't been able to accurately project temperatures even remotely accurately when you go back and plug in known/existing data between 1900-2000. By "remotely accurately" IIRC it was something like the results were off by a few hundred degrees.

    On the flip side, aside from people using "green" to control the populations further / limit rights (which to me is like just taking a shortcut to the bad parts of environmental issues), is there really any real danger to not cleaning up a little bit aside from some slight inconveniences along the way? Personally, it baffles me as to why so many people don't at least try - something about not crapping where you eat and sleep yada yada - this includes not just the US or even China, but even some pretty remote parts of the world.
     
  3. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    You're wrong (or, what you read was).
     
  4. Thad E Ginathom

    Thad E Ginathom Friend

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    I'm probably wrong too --- but isn't some of what is happening right now actually shocking researchers? eg extent of Greenland ice loss, temperatures in Antarctic.
     
  5. Friday

    Friday Friend

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    You're wrong (with URLs edition):
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...ate-models-correctly-predicted-global-warming
    http://theconversation.com/40-years...climate-change-and-hey-they-were-right-120502
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-models-got-it-right-on-global-warming/

    3 links on the same study published late last year.
     
  6. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    It is difficult to read something less convincing that the this study. Example?
    "Hansen’s 1988 model ultimately predicted about 50% more warming for the coming decades than actually occurred, giving fodder to skeptics’ arguments that scientists were exaggerating the issue of global warming. But the issue with Hansen’s model wasn’t its physics, Hausfather and colleagues point out. The model assumed higher emissions of methane and chlorofluorocarbons, both potent greenhouse gases, than actually occurred."
    So the question is who cares how good the models are if the data you feed to them is garbage? I am not saying it not worth reading an discussing but quoting a single study, not even a study but the description in popular science magazines, as a final scientific verdict on the validity of climate models is..well it is very well known trick.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
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  7. Biodegraded

    Biodegraded Friend

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    More models vs their hindcast and forecast performances discussed here:

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming

    Sure, it's from another 'popular science magazine' - but the models and data it compiles are from the scientific literature and can be easily found there, along with model/data comparisons that are endlessly discussed within that literature by the scientists actually doing the work.

    Point is: the projections haven't been too bad. But how they reflect decadal-scale (not to mention annual) variability around the general trend still needs to be improved, if only because it's mismatches on that sort of scale that are used by critics in attempts to discredit modeling as a whole.

    @Thad E Ginathom : yes - the pace of current changes of some phenomena is surprising many. As are the rates of past changes (Pleistocene deglaciations, T rise into the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, etc.) that have become evident with recent improvements in dating precision.
     
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  8. elmoe

    elmoe Friend

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    It's all a trick don't you get it? The deep state is out to get your tax dollars by forcing you to buy electric cars and use paper straws in a plot to make the barrell price drop so they can replenish the reserves and stick it to the Saudis who finance their opponents' campaigns. It's all very complicated so don't worry too much about it and just buy a V8 SUV and set your AC 5 degrees cooler so you can be part of the silent protesting majority oppressed by the big bad climate change taxing regime.
     
  9. squishware

    squishware Friend

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    Or you can ruin your life by worrying yourself sick based on the belief that they really might be able to predict the weather. Then draw conclusions about what effects that might have on people you never met and likely never will and rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic so you can FEEL that you are doing something. As for me and my house I refuse to watch until it hits the Audio Forum I frequent.
     
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  10. wormcycle

    wormcycle Friend

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    I understand that you tried very hard to be condescending, otherwise I have no idea what you are talking about.
     
  11. elmoe

    elmoe Friend

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    I've learned a long time ago not to try hard with climate change deniers. If the vast majority of the scientific community will still not reach you there's no chance in hell my trying hard will.

    Now I just entertain myself.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
  12. squishware

    squishware Friend

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    I do not deny anything except the effect of your personal consumption and behavior will effect the climate in a meaningful way unless you are changing policy on an at least national scale.

    I also deny ANYONE who claims to know the future.

    I remember the 7 year drought up in the Sierra Nevada Mountains recently as I was working on a ski mountain and people were worried if it would EVER snow again. The next season had 700% more precipitation than normal. Homeostasis is the norm on this planet.

    For the record, my carbon footprint is smaller than yours if you are reading this and have made it out of your mom's basement.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
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  13. elmoe

    elmoe Friend

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    Yes what matters is how you vote, we agree there.
     
  14. Friday

    Friday Friend

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    Thanks for cherry-picking sentences from the article. For the few who are interested, the full paragraphs in the Scientific American go:
    One example is a famous climate model developed by NASA researcher James Hansen, whose congressional testimony on climate change in the 1980s helped catapult the issue into the public spotlight. Hansen’s 1988 model ultimately predicted about 50% more warming for the coming decades than actually occurred, giving fodder to skeptics’ arguments that scientists were exaggerating the issue of global warming.

    But the issue with Hansen’s model wasn’t its physics, Hausfather and colleagues point out. The model assumed higher emissions of methane and chlorofluorocarbons, both potent greenhouse gases, than actually occurred. That’s in part because the model did not account for the future impact of the Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to phase out the use of chlorofluorocarbons in an effort to reverse the ozone hole.

    “If you went back and reran that model with the actual levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and methane and chlorofluorocarbons, you would have gotten a value that was indistinguishable from the warming that we’ve actually observed,” Hausfather said.

    I do agree that more accurate data will always be needed for more accurate predictions and you can only predict the future so well. However, in this example, the data was off because action had been taken to mitigate another environmental issue, and while that might not be the aim of the article or the study per se, it suggests that some of these doom-and-gloom scenarios may be avoidable if appropriate measures are put in place. Considering that we aren't going to be making such efforts with greenhouse gases any time soon, I think the garbage that we feed into models now is pretty good garbage.

    And I also agree that reporting of scientific studies in any form of journalism can be downright crap. But this is one of the occasional cases where the reporting actually gives some idea of the original paper if readers bothered to read it properly instead of digging for examples that can be rearranged to support their views. In addition, the Scientific American article which you quoted from also provides a token link to the original study/review which assessed the predictions of past studies in its 3rd paragraph that allows you to bypass the paywall and judge the merit of the paper on its own terms.

    I'm not here to be a Greta Thunberg, or to tell individuals to change their lives while industries go on as usual, or try to convince people that climate change is more than a political issue (and it really is bigger than dumb politics). I am too familiar with some of the crowd here to do that. But if you're going to misrepresent or intentionally mis-interpret stuff, that's pulling a Jude/Amir and you should at least be better than that.
     
  15. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    Arguing about the accuracy of models, citing X or Y studies is utter nonsense. Regardless of the models' accuracy, the changes that arise from global warming are not immediate. They are gradual (however, shit's going to hit the fan anyway.) Sure there are events such as the Agoura-Malibu fire that wiped out entire swathes of homes in a matter of days (actually, this is a bad example, because these fires have happened every twenty years - there was a similar firestorm that occurred in the 70s with ZERO lessons learned).

    Because the changes are gradual, humans will be able to adapt to them. Rich countries or rich areas will in general be able to adapt better than others. Indonesia is already moving it's capital Jakarta to Kalimantan as the oceans rise and Jakarta sinks. (It's actually overpopulation and draining of aquifers more than ocean sea level rise). Venice has its MOSE project to protect it from future floods. African nations might be fucked from a combination of global warming and also long term earth climate cycles. The beach homes along the PCH might sink, but most of California will be OK - the state is more likely to turn into a humid tropical paradise than more desert.

    Since no one really wants to take my climate change pledge (https://www.superbestaudiofriends.o...incorrect-audio-blog.7261/page-20#post-287428) or implement a 3% annual wealth tax on all green politicians and billionaires to build free solar power for all families in America and pay for 50% of the Tesla and Schiit factory energy use, the best thing we can do is prepare. If we don't want to sacrifice (to the extreme), we need to prepare.

    The problem is that no one is preparing.

    Last time I checked, a local apartment operator has proposed to build another 161 units near a hill that burned down in the 2018 Woolsey fire. All of New Orleans will be underwater in matter of decades, or it the projections are too aggressive, will be by the end of the century, yet the local government is allowing a ton of construction projects near a riverbank with a high risk of flooding. No doubt people will forget about the areas of Houston and the Carolinas affected by flood in last years' storms and continue to build there. California's aging power lines are rusting and falling apart in drought affected highly dense foliage areas, yet the public utilities regulators forced the power companies to adhere to X percentage of renewable power generation instead of concentrating on safety (spend money on new solar, not spend money to fix old lines).

    I'm going to stop here because I feel like strangling Jerry Brown right now. "New normal" my ass.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2020
  16. Taverius

    Taverius Smells like sausages

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    I had a good laugh, thanks.

    They've been building it since I was able to understand speech, it's never worked, it's already too rusty to function.

    Last winter when they needed it there was nobody in the entire city hall who knew who to call to have it turned on.

    There's a reason we sold our house on the grand canal and moved to Rapallo, where we bought a place 100m ASL on a hill with a view of the bay.

    I'm trying to do the same for the part of the family palace my father's side of the family owns for the same reason.
     
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  17. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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    If ever the Dutch institutions start neglecting our water works (Delta works and everything inland) that will be my cue to leave.

    The Netherlands have had to deal with the sea for centuries and the threat always lingers. Seas and oceans are water masses that do not care. Reclaim the land or get away.
     
  18. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    LOL, I read about all the incompetence and corruption with the MOSE project. Didn't want to get into it. Now imagine if the city decided to address climate change in Venice by requiring that 50% of power generation come from renewable sources. MOSE will be completed, sooner or later, after millions more.
     
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  19. purr1n

    purr1n Finding his inner redneck

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    Cutting and pasting from another thread to here with some minor edits.

    Oh yeah, for all you guys at the beginning of your careers, and I know there are quite a few (personal audio demographics):
    • Keep some money in your pocket or acquire some wealth (assets). Don't blow your money on exotic tube amps at age 28 to tell SBAF about it, thinking you are a winner. Having the ability to say "take this job and shove it" gives you enormous flexibility. Be mindful to be professional if and when you quit your job, even if the company takes it personally and decides to have security show you out the door immediately or the next day. Take your time to find the right job, not the best paying job. I probably rushed too quickly into new jobs when I was young.
    • Avoid large old-school tech backward industries: big insurance, big health-care, big packaged foods, etc. Tech backward doesn't mean they don't use tech. It means they are dumb about it, e.g. paying for two dozen Oracle DB licenses when almost free stuff like Mongo can be used for the back end DBs, dumb policies against the use of "freeware", e.g. "CentOS is freeware, therefore we cannot use it". I've never been successful in the long term at these kinds of companies - always leaving with an escort out of the premises the day after my resignation letter.
    • Don't think your bosses are idiots, even if your bosses are idiots. They did get there somehow, so at least learn the qualities that got them there. Picking up on the good doesn't mean you have to pick up on the bad. The minute you pull off the "OK Boomer" thing, even in your own mind, you've lost. Sometimes the idiot bosses are there because they happen to be relatives or kids of senior management, CEO, or board directors. In such cases, just quit, these types of idiot bosses are untouchable.
    • Always be nice and bring little gifts to the executive assistant or department secretary. Bring donuts for the entire department and put them on the secretary's desk. The executive assistants know all the shit and will be the ones to tell you stuff like your manager is the ex-CEO's daughter. Be sure to always keep their confidence. Don't be the guy on SBAF that leaked the Yggdrasil A2 secret to his GF who in turn leaked it on HF (inaccurate information and all).
    • If you find a good boss, follow them. But keep in mind that bosses are people too, and that that they may become worse leaders in new or more demanding environments. Don't be afraid to leave when this happens, but keep on good terms.
    • Decide your path: subject matter expert or high council member. Do you want to be like Obi-Wan and take on missions or do you like to deliberate in the Jedi temple like Yoda? People who can do both effectively may find themselves moving back and forth with these roles throughout their career. You may be thrust into roles that you never asked for - this is usually how promotions happen. Just be mindful of what makes you happy. Read on to the next point.
    • Don't be overly concerned with what other people are doing or how successful they are. You just hear about the good stuff, the accolades, the money, the bonuses, not the bullshit and skullfucking they had to deal with. Don't be obsessed with climbing the corporate ladder. While the subject matter expert path usually doesn't lead to EVP or CEO, it's much easier to find another job, and being at the top of your game can get you big bucks, enough to have a comfortable living. You also do not have to deal with politics on an even uglier level, or have to solve near impossible complex structural issues. On the other hand, if you are good with people and a good strategic thinker, it can be extremely rewarding to build well oiled machines. Just don't let your technical skills slide because no one wants a person who just tells other people what to do.
    • Companies will merge or implode. Don't be the last guy on the ship. Don't let any company "carrot on a stick" you until the very end. It's good character to stay as long as you can, be among the last dozen, but don't be the last three. The potential $30k in stock options isn't worth it compared to a smoother transition to a boat that isn't sinking. Unless you have been given a contract to stay after the merger, you won't be around. Don't be a slave to hope and fear. Don't be controlled by corporations like a good worker ant, make your own path. Keep up on your companies quarterly reports so you know when layoffs are going to happen before your coworkers. And be professional and don't take it personally if you do get laid off. Take a lesson from the Moneyball movie where popular players on the team are suddenly traded. It's not 1960s IBM anymore, but that's a good thing.
    • At some points in your career, through no fault of your own, you may have to move down to move up. This happened to me twice. The last time was when the community and regional niche-banking industry fell apart because of Dodd-Frank. Dodd-Frank was advertised as to prevent "banks too big to fail". Unfortunately, the onerous requirements were too much for the smaller banks and their lower profit margins, which resulted in mergers and even bigger banks too big to fail. Combined with Obamacare more than doubling my family's monthly health insurance premium, and doing away with my "save for a rainy day" tax-deductible HSA plan, I was fucked. I took a 25% pay cut and started at the bottom of the rung in the media and entertainment industry. It took me three years to pay my dues and establish a good reputation among my industry peers. Yes, I too started as a rando and I never once bitched about it. An industry peer had a saying: the cream always rises to the top. Finally, don't be afraid to make a lateral move (even down slightly) to expand your skills because you are super comfortable where you are currently at because of the Cadillac health plan. You don't want to be that pathetic 58 year old information security professional that no one wants to hire.
    • Pay your dues and care passionately about your work. Doesn't matter if you think you are the smartest guy in the room if nobody knows who the fuck you are. Establishing respect takes time and caring a whole lot about what you do. I'm not saying that you work weekends. But I am saying that you identify and take on important stuff that needs to get done, that one one else is getting done, and get it done. I'm still amazed how much people just talk about ideas but don't get shit done. People who solve problems and get shit done get a lot more leeway in being grumpy at work because everybody knows their heart is in the right place.
    • Did well in school? Graduated with a 4.6 GPA in high school and a 3.8 at UCLA? No one gives a shit. Unless you were one of those people with family connections and were groomed to be senior leadership from an early age, no one gives a shit. Lose your snob attitude because people who went to far lesser schools with worse grades happen to be senior management at your new place of work. Your GPA could have come at the expense of not knowing how to make friends and influence people, or not knowing how to wipe your own ass because your mom or your SAT tutor did it for you. Know that you are not special anymore once you are out of school. You start over as a rando. Better be just a rando who is able and willing, than the rando with the 3.8 UCLA GPA.
    • Don't go certificate crazy. I know these dudes with 12 technical certificates behind their names. Get one or two which are most pertinent to what you do or are required by your profession. People with a lot of certs tend to be extremely mediocre. They don't suck, they aren't subpar, but they are mediocre. The reason is that anyone and their grandmother can "buy" a cert today. You are supposed to be a professional, helping the company that pays you money to make money, not a member of the British Royal family. I'm not advocating this, but I let all of my certs slide. If a hiring company or firm requires certs for the job and can't determine your level of expertise from interviews, then you probably don't want to work for them. It's OK if they agree to pay for your certs after they hire. But then again, if the hiring firm want certs, they are likely to be a marketing and "consulting" firm cranking out bullshit rather than a "get real shit done the right way" firm.
    • Get shit done. Talk is cheap. Ideas and talk and complaining is not getting shit done. Company environments can be extremely distracting with pointless meetings to have more meetings. Allocate blocks in your Outlook calendar to work on actual deliverables. Then schedule meetings to show people what you got done.
    • Take advantage of the above with modern more enlightened corporate cultures and managers. Now is a better time than any before. There are lots of small, medium and large sized companies that are fun to work for, where bosses care about you (because good workers make them better) as opposed to bosses who skullfuck you just so they can feel the power.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2020
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  20. Taverius

    Taverius Smells like sausages

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    I wonder if there'll be anyone living there by then.

    Venice proper used to have 175k pop, it's now 50k and dropping, because even Italians ain't that dumb - the ones that are, are dying of old age.

    When I was a little kid there were always kids playing around the old sealed wells in the nearby square, I haven't seen any in 10 years, every year that goes by more and more windows on the streets are shut tight and they never open again.

    Even the traditional fresh fish/produce markets that have been going on for over 1100 years are closing up.

    The ship is sinking and the rats are running.
     
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