Putin's War With Ukraine (and democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.)

Well, this one Russian POW had something to get off his chest:

https://twitter.com/hackingbutlegal/status/1500465032966062082

Original source:

 

China also hasn’t sent their own men to die for nothing in 40 years. Since Deng Xiaoping tried to “teach the ungrateful Vietnamese a lesson.”

The scorched earth tactics the PLA tried took Lang Son yet were taking casualties at a militarily unsustainable and politically unsustainable rate for the politburo. Think Bunker Hill. Do that 2-3 times and your army is gone. China has tried bs historical revisionism with that most recent invasion of Vietnam but it hasn’t worked. Movies even have had the Vietnamese invading China first, when really the Chiense were mad the Vietnamese weren’t listening to them and overthrew Pol Pot. Trying to suppress veteran meetings didn’t work.

The crazy part is Putin could easily pull a year zero cold war reset because “Russia as kleptocratic gas station” fails as a state

 

So given we're seemingly policy, politics, international relations, and war strategist professionals in this thread, explain to me how this situation gets resolved?

 

Sounds like a cop out, but it's impossible to say. Right now our vision - the vision of everyone including Russia, the west, and the rest of the world is too limited. Both sides, all sides are passionately committed to their 'frame of reference', practically and morally, and these frames have marched us right up to the point we are at. I have opinions, but they rest on my framing and personal experiences and while up until now they have been predictive in the sense of "I saw this train wreck coming years ago" their insight (rather abruptly) ends here, in war, where (too many) multi possibilities open up - most of the horrifyingly bad from a humanistic perspective.

 

I don't find a cold war reset all that comforting. Not since so many documents from that era have been declassified and we now all know we've been minutes and even seconds away from global nuclear holocaust more than a half dozen times.

We're really lucky to still be here, a cold war reset seems like something we should avoid at all costs.

 

Send Putin a pair of Beyers, an Audio-GD Singularity S19, and a Topping L30. Wait for one of several things to happen.

 

Either he will kill himself or nuke China.

 

40% of Russia's revenue comes from oil and gas exports. The west imports $750,000,000 a day in oil, gas, and coal. Add this to sanctions, and pray the domestic consequences for Putin lead to de-escalation.

 

We'll tell you afterwards. It's so much easier to discuss history, right?

In the meantime, various ideas and theories will emerge, and some of them are very helpful to people like me who never studied history and paid only cursory attention to current affairs.

I just wish there was a speedy end to this. And one which does not include Russia stomping on Ukraine... and anywhere else Putin needs to complete his Soviet Empire Rebuilt plan.

 

I fell asleep today and had a dream that I went on a date with the President of Ukraine. I think we played Tennis, I don''t date guys or play tennis it was f'ing weird. Maybe I was sending him good vibes. Hopefully. I hope he hangs in there. Praying for Ukraine!

 

I dreamt about meeting Margaret Thatcher once. Odd thing was, she was charming!

I think you got your wires crossed with Boris Johnson. He dreams of playing tennis with the other side, the Russians. Pay the tory party enough, and he will.

 

And he just did. The foreign media outlets left

 

when I was teaching at a college on China in 2001 one of my students told me she had a fantasy that Putin would show up to the school, walk into her classroom and take her away to marry him.

 

the buffer state thing is bullshit anyway since Russia is already bordered by 5 NATO countries (including Poland and Lithuania that border Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast). Just an excuse for Putin to take what he wants.

 

That's the entire raisin dater. What Putin Wants. All the rest is bullshit.

What's with this NATO thing? I was not following before all thus broke out, then I understood (from the internet, of course) that NATO was wooing Ukraine, and Ukraine was responding positively. Now, it seems NATO is slamming door on Ukraine. Was I wrong in the first place, or is USA/NATO shafting Ukraine?

Can't see how NATO could possibly want/accept Ukraine now. That would be like an insurance company taking on a building that is already burning down. Insurance companies bet on stuff happening: they don't place the bet that it won't when it already is happening. (Not entirely true: please take as an analogy, not an absolute assertion of what insurance industry does/doesn't).

Here's a woman who knows what Putin is: Pussy Riot’s Nadya Tolokonnikova: ‘You cannot play nice with Putin. He is insane. He might open fire on his own people’

 

Other way round.

After Crimea, Ukraine was pushing hard for NATO membership to try and prevent this very outcome, but NATO was really cool on the idea. Concerns about governance, systemic corruption and the like. The view being Ukraine needed to get its internal shit in order first - a decades long reform process.

 

The NATO thing is that a lot of people have been saying that Putin was goaded into attacking - he had no choice because Ukraine is at his border and they were trying to join NATO which is akin to an act of war. He must have buffers at his border between NATO countries. Putin has said similar. Never mind about the other NATO countries that are already on his border.

Mmm… maybe that was the feeling early on in the mid-10’s right after Crimea but that got cleaned up. NATO voted to allow Ukraine to join at the 2008 Bucharest Summit. Then Ukraine got a president in 2010 who didn’t want to join and pulled out. After he fled the country and then Russia invaded Crimea they decided to start that process back up. In 2021 NATO reiterated what they originally said in the 2008 Bucharest summit and both parties had full intentions of Ukraine joining again.

 

Full intention is easy for them all to say, with many conditions. The process would not have been fast, and NATO membership was certainly not imminent.