Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    Yes, and the reason they had the upper hand since 2017? It's because they fought and died for what they believed in instead of thinking somebody else would do it for them.

    Taiwan will likely get run over if and when China invades because most Taiwanese won't fight. Perhaps attitudes will change now.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  2. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    Source is WSJ, but many stories and reports of him kinda going off weird tangents for hours at a time in front of Macron, Olaf, Zelensky, etc..Similar to stories of what I had heard about Jude going off about me for hours at a time in front of some MoTs. :D
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  3. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    Do you have a link, or remember the title? I'd like to read it.
     
  4. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-ukr...omatic-efforts-by-western-leaders-11645565139

    Mr. Macron was stunned, telling Mr. Putin he was making a grave decision, according to the French official close to Mr. Macron. Mr. Putin then deepened their concerns, the French official said, with “a historical-political speech that was operational, accusatory, and mixed, let’s say, various considerations of a rigid and paranoid nature.”

    The meeting was initially tense, according to aides to Mr. Scholz... Nearly half of the meeting, which went on for over three hours, involved Mr. Putin’s explanation of the joint history of Ukraine and Russia, as well as his complaints about NATO encroachment and the West refusing to acknowledge his attempts to forge a closer relationship over the years, one aide said.

    U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also received a lecture from Mr. Putin when he spoke with him in a lengthy phone call earlier this month, according to one British official. The Russian gave Mr. Johnson a belligerent history lesson, the officials said. Mr. Johnson pushed back offering his own interpretation of events.

    Some analysts said Mr. Putin gets irritated when he feels he is being misunderstood, especially when it comes to explaining the ties between Russia and Ukraine
    It's reporters and press, which always embellishes stuff, but probably some truth to this. If I were a statesmen, I'd use the last bit to annoy Putin, pretending to be dumb, pushing his buttons, since Putin himself is known for dirty tricks during one on one meetings.
     
  5. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    Living in a place with a huge ethnic Ukrainian community, and with friends who are now worried about extended families back home, I think you greatly overestimate the relevance of any cultural similarities. Ukrainians remember the Holodomor exactly like Jews remember the Holocaust. No amount of culture can overcome the memory of having a genocide inflicted on them by the Soviets, and Putin is as representatively Soviet as they come.
     
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  6. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    @purr1n Thank you, it was a good read and gave me some insight I didn't have.

    I think you'll find this interesting. Alastair Campbell was Tony Blair's right hand. He has some first hand experience and doesn't mince words. It covers a lot of ground and is worth reading.

    https://alastaircampbell.org/2022/0...eakness-and-the-west-has-helped-him-to-do-so/

    He is in numerous ways a bad man, as Kasparov will be the first to allege, but he is a very strategic leader, and has – so far – outwitted his many opponents at home and abroad. It is hard to like Putin – I speak as someone who did when we first met [late 90s] – and some of his actions have been repulsive, but from the Machiavellian perspective that to exercise power you must hold power, develop power, use it to your own advantage, he is something of a winner. Angela Merkel is convinced Putin lowers and deepens his voice when they speak, and if the intention is to remind her of his days as a KGB interrogator, he succeeds.

    ‘So, like him? No. But looked at coldly, analytically, it is impossible to dismiss the skills he has shown in driving home his own strategic message and what he sees as his strategic advantage. He certainly doesn’t. Indeed I learned via a world leader who was at the G20 summit in Brisbane in 2014 of a remarkable outburst by the Russian president, who told other leaders he was the only one in the room with a strategy, and that they were all tactical, adding “you think your tactics will bring me to my knees but you will be on your knees first.” He had been subject to a succession of public attacks and had decided to boycott the dinner, adding “all you do is eat.” His risk may be over-reach – and the rouble crisis not long afterwards was an indication that sanctions as well as the falling oil price were hitting him hard.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  7. Wilewarer

    Wilewarer Facebook Friend

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    Yeah. So many of us, different ethnic groups, very much remember family stories about what exactly what was done to us by the Soviets. Even generations removed, even if we never lived there. And unlike certain other perpetrators of atrocities, there was never even a whiff of atonement from the USSR or its modern heir, since of course the USSR/Russia never was defeated in a way that would have forced any reflection on the matter. Not even a figurehead being called to account.

    Other thoughts I have about this aside, it's horrifying that anyone, anywhere, thinks "yeah, actually the Soviet Union was great. We should get back to that, paranoid ethnic purges are something the world needs more of".
     
  8. nishan99

    nishan99 Friend

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    I think you underestimate the relevance of the cultural similarities. People forget and move on, that's how humans are wired.

    The west liberal and democratic culture was almost an alien culture to the Afghans, can't say the same for the whole eastern Europe.

    (For context I'm not pro the invasion, I'm just disagreeing about the idea that Ukraine could be the Afghanistan of Russia)
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  9. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Him and me both. However it's getting easier in some ways now that the wests liberal hegemony and idealism has failed in Afghanistan, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and of course dealing with China.

    The idea that you can reduce this to the actions of a"bad man", a mere strategy, etc. Is part of our problem here in the West, with our media, etc.
     
  10. Deep Funk

    Deep Funk Deep thoughts - Friend

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    In the recent developments around the world I have been wondering.

    Why do people forget how recent some countries and/or states are?

    Germany, Poland, the U.S. Ukraine (1921 or 1991, enjoy the debate), Vietnam, South-Africa, Belgium (our Dutch king was an idiot), India, 20th century China and the list goes on.

    Many younger countries and/or states (historically speaking, context matters!) still struggle with issues.

    In the last 24 months I have stopped following most of the news. I look at the world as a multi-dimensional chessboard and think of Gaia and Chronos. Who is the next big mover and makes things happen? Time will tell. Even so countries and/or states which have existed a while longer tend to be more stable.

    I get the feeling the world is becoming more stupid. I do not like it.
     
  11. Tachikoma

    Tachikoma Almost "Made"

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    If anything, that 1nm process is the prize of capturing Taiwan, no? Imagine China and Russia having a monopoly over TSMC's factories in Taiwan.

    Anyway, if the west is too impotent to impose anything but economic sanctions, what is stopping China from going WW2 Japan on its side of the world and creating its own self-contained economy?
     
  12. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Thanks for posting this. The video could be useful for some. It's not exactly "sound bite" history, though it is very much a "survey", not connecting the dots. Actually, it does connect the dots from a...surprise surprise...perspective that is fully invested in the "liberal hegemony". As she says at the end "the world has moved on" (from "colonialism", etc.)...except it hasn't. Her reduction of the place of the history of Kievan Rus to "colonialism" (on the part of Russia) is so shallow that she might as well not mentioned the history that she does, as she does not 'get it' - she is too invested in her own (liberal) view of the world.
     
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    I don't understand how our statesmen, most of whom went to the best liberal arts colleges and universities, have no clue or no desire the learn the values, movitations, concerns, fears or other peoples. If we truly understood where other people were coming from, we would not have had Vietnam and Afghanistan. We wouldn't have been duped by China's communists into thinking that one day they would democratize and be good (as if Tiananmen wasn't a clue). Heck, my 13 year old son, who is an avid reader of history, seems to understand what makes the people of foreign lands tick more than anyone in the current and past administrations, well other than Fiona Hill (who was not American educated).

    The problem with the West and particularly the USA is always thinking that our way is the right way, and also not understanding that other peoples hold grudges far longer. It's probably because the USA is a young country which for most of its history has owned the land from the East to West coasts, and hasn't faced the massive devastation of continental wars for hundreds of years as Europe has. I initially found Americans' willingness to let go of grudges bemusing but quickly came to realize it as an asset. Business people screw each other over, but can bury the hatchet when there's an opportunity. That doesn't happen often in other parts of the world where perceived wrongs are often seared into memories, sometimes for generations.

    The Soviet era is over. This is the last gasp. It's telling that the ex-Soviet baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania called for the immediate kicking of Russia from SWIFT. Maybe this whole thing could have been avoided if we treated Putin and Russia with more respect. Maybe not. The best thing to do is to go back to what's actually worked well in the past - to contain it. But fuck, we know just that much more of our taxes are going to have to pay for European security.
     
  14. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    Not if the factory is in flames and the engineers are dead. These factories cost tens of billions and take years to build. Because the stuff they make is so cutting edge, they require a very high process maturity level.

    It's not like Civilization 5 where you move troop units into a city and automatically get most of the building upgrades.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  15. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    Given the prevalence of ongoing hostilities all over the world based on literally centuries old grievances I'm not convinced.

    Yeah, I agree you can't force democracy on people who really don't care. I'd like to think it is equally hard to take it away from people who do, but that remains to be seen.
     
  16. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    Lack of operational military experience. Conducting large scale military operations is a logistical nightmare and something always goes wrong. Chinese communist culture doesn't reward people for taking initiative, making changes on the fly, etc. Their military is not a volunteer professional force. Also, most of their high-tech stuff is cosmetic and really doesn't work, at least not yet. To be honest, I'm surprised that US military stuff works - but I'm assuming that the likes of Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrup test their shit and have had years of experience improving upon existing designs.

    Russia has been honing its skills in the middle east and of course the 2014 invasion, the Caucuses before all this.
     
  17. Tachikoma

    Tachikoma Almost "Made"

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    I think it would be more accurate to say that you can't force people to relinquish power, nor can you force people to take on responsibilities beyond their personal well-being - both are necessary just for a democracy to function, nevermind replace a pre-existing power structure.

    Does it really matter when their adversaries (except Singapore lol) also suffer from the same issues and (probably) cumulatively have less than a tenth of their military budget?

    As for the factories being burnt down... I would not be surprised if they already have a plan to secure the factories right as the invasion begins. They could also be content with no one having access to said technology.
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
  18. roshambo123

    roshambo123 Friend

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    I sit and wonder if Putin and cronies will capitalize on the massive Russian stonks crash to gobble up a large number of firms.
     
  19. purr1n

    purr1n Burned out

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    Having to cross water makes it kind of hard. There's a reason why no one has invaded England since the Normans.

    Taiwan has a decent air force, a half dozen E2s, a few dozen Mirage 2000, and about 150 F16s, about over a third are the latest V variant. They'd have more by now, but Bush and Obama administrations wanted to placate and appease China, denying advanced weapons sales. Hardened bases, dispersion of assets, etc. All that jazz, assisted by US military advisors.

    The world has way too much to lose in Taiwan's situation.
     
  20. mediumroast

    mediumroast Rando

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    I have voted for Taiwan with my purchases, PC hardware and high-quality multimeters. ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte, Seasonic. Basically, the best quality PC build hardware comes from Taiwan. Of course, not to mention the importance of TMSC which builds big and small chips. Including the ones with 10s of billions of transistors.
     

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