Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

@purr1n Thank you, it was a good read and gave me some insight I didn't have.

I think you'll find this interesting. Alastair Campbell was Tony Blair's right hand. He has some first hand experience and doesn't mince words. It covers a lot of ground and is worth reading.

https://alastaircampbell.org/2022/0...eakness-and-the-west-has-helped-him-to-do-so/

He is in numerous ways a bad man, as Kasparov will be the first to allege, but he is a very strategic leader, and has – so far – outwitted his many opponents at home and abroad. It is hard to like Putin – I speak as someone who did when we first met [late 90s] – and some of his actions have been repulsive, but from the Machiavellian perspective that to exercise power you must hold power, develop power, use it to your own advantage, he is something of a winner. Angela Merkel is convinced Putin lowers and deepens his voice when they speak, and if the intention is to remind her of his days as a KGB interrogator, he succeeds.

‘So, like him? No. But looked at coldly, analytically, it is impossible to dismiss the skills he has shown in driving home his own strategic message and what he sees as his strategic advantage. He certainly doesn’t. Indeed I learned via a world leader who was at the G20 summit in Brisbane in 2014 of a remarkable outburst by the Russian president, who told other leaders he was the only one in the room with a strategy, and that they were all tactical, adding “you think your tactics will bring me to my knees but you will be on your knees first.” He had been subject to a succession of public attacks and had decided to boycott the dinner, adding “all you do is eat.” His risk may be over-reach – and the rouble crisis not long afterwards was an indication that sanctions as well as the falling oil price were hitting him hard.​

 

Yeah. So many of us, different ethnic groups, very much remember family stories about what exactly what was done to us by the Soviets. Even generations removed, even if we never lived there. And unlike certain other perpetrators of atrocities, there was never even a whiff of atonement from the USSR or its modern heir, since of course the USSR/Russia never was defeated in a way that would have forced any reflection on the matter. Not even a figurehead being called to account.

Other thoughts I have about this aside, it's horrifying that anyone, anywhere, thinks "yeah, actually the Soviet Union was great. We should get back to that, paranoid ethnic purges are something the world needs more of".

 

I think you underestimate the relevance of the cultural similarities. People forget and move on, that's how humans are wired.

The west liberal and democratic culture was almost an alien culture to the Afghans, can't say the same for the whole eastern Europe.

(For context I'm not pro the invasion, I'm just disagreeing about the idea that Ukraine could be the Afghanistan of Russia)

 

Him and me both. However it's getting easier in some ways now that the wests liberal hegemony and idealism has failed in Afghanistan, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and of course dealing with China.

The idea that you can reduce this to the actions of a"bad man", a mere strategy, etc. Is part of our problem here in the West, with our media, etc.

 

In the recent developments around the world I have been wondering.

Why do people forget how recent some countries and/or states are?

Germany, Poland, the U.S. Ukraine (1921 or 1991, enjoy the debate), Vietnam, South-Africa, Belgium (our Dutch king was an idiot), India, 20th century China and the list goes on.

Many younger countries and/or states (historically speaking, context matters!) still struggle with issues.

In the last 24 months I have stopped following most of the news. I look at the world as a multi-dimensional chessboard and think of Gaia and Chronos. Who is the next big mover and makes things happen? Time will tell. Even so countries and/or states which have existed a while longer tend to be more stable.

I get the feeling the world is becoming more stupid. I do not like it.

 

If anything, that 1nm process is the prize of capturing Taiwan, no? Imagine China and Russia having a monopoly over TSMC's factories in Taiwan.

Anyway, if the west is too impotent to impose anything but economic sanctions, what is stopping China from going WW2 Japan on its side of the world and creating its own self-contained economy?

 

Thanks for posting this. The video could be useful for some. It's not exactly "sound bite" history, though it is very much a "survey", not connecting the dots. Actually, it does connect the dots from a...surprise surprise...perspective that is fully invested in the "liberal hegemony". As she says at the end "the world has moved on" (from "colonialism", etc.)...except it hasn't. Her reduction of the place of the history of Kievan Rus to "colonialism" (on the part of Russia) is so shallow that she might as well not mentioned the history that she does, as she does not 'get it' - she is too invested in her own (liberal) view of the world.

 

Given the prevalence of ongoing hostilities all over the world based on literally centuries old grievances I'm not convinced.

Yeah, I agree you can't force democracy on people who really don't care. I'd like to think it is equally hard to take it away from people who do, but that remains to be seen.

 

I think it would be more accurate to say that you can't force people to relinquish power, nor can you force people to take on responsibilities beyond their personal well-being - both are necessary just for a democracy to function, nevermind replace a pre-existing power structure.

Does it really matter when their adversaries (except Singapore lol) also suffer from the same issues and (probably) cumulatively have less than a tenth of their military budget?

As for the factories being burnt down... I would not be surprised if they already have a plan to secure the factories right as the invasion begins. They could also be content with no one having access to said technology.

 

I sit and wonder if Putin and cronies will capitalize on the massive Russian stonks crash to gobble up a large number of firms.

 

I have voted for Taiwan with my purchases, PC hardware and high-quality multimeters. ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte, Seasonic. Basically, the best quality PC build hardware comes from Taiwan. Of course, not to mention the importance of TMSC which builds big and small chips. Including the ones with 10s of billions of transistors.

 

Dude if i had Russia's relative landmass in Civ5 i'd have won already...

 

Things are changing in Taiwan in recent years. But this would also depends on which party the person belongs to.

 

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault:
The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin
by John J. Mearsheimer
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf

Written by this guy in 2014
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Mearsheimer

It's an interesting read. Explaining the disparity in thinking between Russia and the West, Ukraine's long term predicament being a small power wedged between Russia and the EU, and prophesying the inevitability of what has now come to pass.

 

I linked a youtube of him giving this thesis just upstream. Having just come across this guy the day before yesterday, I appreciate his clear questioning of "liberal hegemony". He thinks now that we are coming back around to a "multi-polar" world, with China and Russia resurgent, the west's liberal idealism will have the counterbalance it needs to see/deal with reality. I'm more pessimistic then he is, but I think he is right that USA foreign policy will surely (surely surely....) move off its current fantasy thinking.

One thing, if I was Japan, or Singapore, or Saudi Arabia, or Australia, or fill_in_the_blank I would not be trusting the US to have your back when push comes to shove, for lots of reasons but not the least is we are not realistic with ourselves and our commitments...