Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

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    Looks like Biden is about to flip PA, and that is before all the major vote dumping from Phila and Pittsburg. Even without AZ/GA/NV, that's 273.

    As I stated before, people are too focus on voting for a President. Like the Latino districts where Trump kicked ass, did they only voted for down-ticket GOP due to Trump or they are now GOP Converts? For FL it is easy why the Cubans went hard for Trump, Trump listened to them and gave them their wishes. Still there are questions that remains to be answered. People are like whores when dealing with political alliances: They sleep around when it is convenient and have "abortions" from their old party when the results goes wrong/hate for them. With time things changes, Dems could be 180 and be Anti-Cuba hardcore for what we know.

    Also, does this mean the Dems love the EC now? :p
     
  2. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    Re: systemic racism. Any study you look at despite it's origin shows that black men are (on average) 2.5X as likely as white men to be murdered by cops. Now take a look at how many cops are charged with murder and how many of those were against whites and how many against blacks. The numbers are pretty basic - no education is required past 1st grade level to do the math.

    The idiocy of liberals is "defund the police". They leave it at that statement and expect that everything will be hunky-dory. What they're not making clear is that in order to get rid of the bad apples, they have to shut down departments (so they can get around union protections) and then start them back up and hire back those who don't have records of violence, abuse, etc.
     
  3. Lyander

    Lyander Official SBAF Equitable Empathizer

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    Shit Marv, I could have told you that with how many metal straws I saw trading hands over recent years, not to mention the hyper-aggressive marketing that promotes eco-friendly, organic produce. Of course you're charged a premium for the latter given the relative inefficiency with which food crops are grown sans the use of (synthetic— scary!) pesticides ;)

    On a more serious note, the way I see it is that mass interest in any single "movement", even characterised as they might be by good intentions, will always leave a door open for those with surpluses of business acumen and are wanting in moral compunction. I've said this before but my time in marketing turned me into something of a cynic when it comes to anything like what you've listed above, and more than the12 hour rotations and shitty pay I resent being robbed of that hope.

    Being peer-and-industry pressured into upgrading tech that should theoretically last for longer is the pits, yes, but at least it doesn't attempt to claim any sort of moral high ground.

    I don't think the green movement is bad in and of itself by far, merely that genuine efforts to achieve the ideals set by the same are a steeper cost than many are willing to pay. I'm not willing to sacrifice use of my air conditioner at any point of the year because besides keeping me from broiling in the summer it keeps the humidity in check at all other points of the year! Also hey modern refrigerants have far fewer drawbacks from an environmental perspective, never mind that the global warming potential of none of them is at 0. Far as I can tell that's physically impossible so RIP.

    https://www.bijlibachao.com/air-con...d-for-air-conditioners-and-refrigerators.html

    But hey some of them don't damage the ozone layer so let's focus on repeating that ad nauseam in marketing material!

    I will make an argument for the boomers (use of this term is ribbing, I know a lot of you are actual boomers but I still love y'all even if your biases are in direct contradiction to mine) saying that WFH can make people unproductive. Someone I know had a minor meltdown because her family was yelling at her in the middle of a business meeting over something silly— could be a "here" thing because I presume this wouldn't be as much of a problem if you lived away from your families, but some family systems are genuinely toxic.

    Whether or not that's too far deviated from "normal" is not something I'm equipped to comment on, but many cases do exist.

    And this is why I enjoy talking about shit like this because within my circles, the whole ACAB thing is genuinely sticking and the sentiment seems to be growing steadily, contrary to expectations that this would be a flash in the pan— without regard for the actual proportion of the overall population it constitutes, loud voices have a tendency of carrying. People also are wired to fixate on perceived threats and so the fact that law enforcement does a good job most of the time carries no real weight in assuaging fears.

    Does that mean that the mass media really is leveraging the animalistic aspects of being human to further their own ends? Not necessarily, proof is lacking.

    Where'd you get the 1.32% figure?

    Nothing much to say with regard to your second point other than the fact that your country is emphatically not a community grows more evident by the day, it seems.
     
  4. yotacowboy

    yotacowboy McRibs Kind of Guy

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    Just so we're not talking past each other here, what's your definition of "institutional racism"?
     
  5. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I read the House resolution on the New Green Deal, and it's so ... on the details. It's reads more like a communist manifesto. There are no goals, no metrics, nothing.

    Anyone who has done any serious research into being more "Green" will quickly realize the dearth of practical solutions to the problem. 90% of it is pie in the sky stuff like cooler concrete or free-trade coffee (like WTF does that have to do with emissions?)

    The Civil War didn't end States' Rights vs. Federal. With all this division, and seemingly no end to it, I'm feeling we are better off with the States' doing their own thing.

    If Utah wants to ban abortion, then by all means. If California wants to force all people to drive electric cars, sure. If Oregon wants to remove all statues of the founders, cool. If Georgia wants to erect a shrine to Jefferson David, good for them (they won't - changing demographics). Lets allow to-each-his-own, with the Federal government ensuring free movement and residence for all citizens. This could actually work, not too different from the United Federal of Planets, where members are allowed their own cultural practices, such as forcing people who express gender in androgynous cultures to submit to "psychotectic" therapy.

    Issues of LGBT rights, gay marriage, abortion, Southern Civil War statues, electric cars - these can all be decided by the individual states. People can choose where they want to live. The rule would be respect the different culture. For example, someone who is pro-abortion shouldn't walk up to an uber-Catholic and call them a fucktard, or vice versa. Hate and fear only arises when one side thinks the other side will take something away from them.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  6. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Um, manipulating our desire (i.e. our non-rational feelings and nature - our appitites usually involving our stomachs and sex organs) so that we buy more stuff is the whole and only reason mass media exists. Its first and last goal is to sell you something, either physical or ideal. It does not exist to inform, "make the world a better place", increase public virtue, or any other such thing. This is the sky is blue stuff.

    That number is just audiophile guesswork. "Systimatic racism" is an hegelian-marxist anthropological abstraction, and people/organizations/societies don't work that way, and the Civil Rights movement was not built upon such fictions. Most Americans believe in an anthropology of tolerance and liberality, and are unwilling to claim people are racist by nature. The Dem's flirtation with it is one of their biggest mistakes. They went for short term manipulation, and it cost them and will in the future I would think.
     
  7. yotacowboy

    yotacowboy McRibs Kind of Guy

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    So what exactly is systemic racism abstracting? In what ways are we glossing over skin color as a proxy for much deeper seated "truths" about general behaviors of large groups of the population? Or am I misunderstanding? I'm honestly curious to hear your opinion.
     
  8. ultrabike

    ultrabike Measurbator - Admin

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    All forms of mass media provide information and manipulate, whatever the purpose may be. And we are manipulatable. For better or for worse.

    Pack animals, such as humans, are discriminating in nature. Discriminating parameters are somewhat flexible. Sometimes the parameters make sense. Sometimes they don't. For better or for worse.
     
  9. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    So while this thread is entertaining and somewhat calm and reasonable place to vent frustrations, I have a different idea. A social experiment if you will. How about we come up with solutions that we can all not necessarily love but at least accept as reasonable?

    We can do one problem at a time. We can reason through data, do our best to figure out what it really means, consider the social and economic impacts and see if we can find a way out of the quagmire.

    Otherwise we're all just a bunch of assholes sitting around bitching and moaning.
     
  10. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Racism is certainly real. I vividly recall the casual racism (and the casual sexism) of many in my youth (small town Oklahoma). Whole cultures, body's of law, and civilization can be racialist and this is part of our history and most of the worlds. However, As used today by the intellectual leaders of BLM mean something very specific when the speak of a "system" of "racism" - a certain conception of a "system", a certain conception of "racism", both couched in Hegelian historical materialism. Allow me to skip to the end of that which they speak by quoting Ibram X. Kendi, a recognized leader of this philosophy:

    The only remedy to racist discrimination is antiracist discrimination.

    The only remedy to past discrimination is present discrimination.

    The only remedy to present discrimination is future discrimination.

    This conception of what discrimination is, how it works, peoples place in it (e.g. do they "will" it or otherwise control it in some fashion, or is it willed upon them by forces beyond their control) is Hegelian. In other words, people are just cogs in the machine of larger historical forces and are manipulated by them. Self will, change (for better or worse) are besides the point - at best unimportant "private" matters. No matters what the color of your skin, your recognition of the personhood of the other (skin color included or not), and your moral disposition toward them - does not matter. What matters is external systemic power.

    We are now very far away from the Civil Rights movement, couched as it was in a moral appeal to our individual consciousness and classical liberal worldview/values -"...not judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character." Kendi does not care about my character or even his own - we are but unit's in a powever struggle. Hegelianism is materialism written over the human soul. Even if you are a classical liberal who does not believe in the soul, you probably believe in persons as moral agents and something more than mere units to be manipulated in a grand historical mechanism.

    BLM and Kendi don't have a chance (though they could do real damage, and have already) because this sort of anti-moral and anti-will philosophy has failed everywhere it has been seriously tried. Like I said most folks here in America believe in other basic things about humanity, and they might at first be partially impressed with foolish "woke" commissars like Kendi (and the media will as always manipulate the situation so they can stir desires and sell them things), but it won't last long..
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  11. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Back to more awesome topics.

    As far as banks collapsing, that is unlikely. The reasons are that Dodd-Frank actually did curb certain risky behaviors such as investing in derivatives and mandated higher reserves. Toward the end of my tenure in banking around 2013, I'd saw regulators pose concerns on riskier investments that they didn't in the past. I saw smaller bankers bitch about higher reserve requirements that tied up the funds that could be used for lending. Banks were always required to run risk models, but risk models were updated to taken into account more catastrophic scenarios.

    Now let's say none of these mitigations worked, and that 1/200 chance scenario occurred. Through precedent, the Bank of the United States, the Feds, can very easily do this in their core processing system. This money can then be moved directly to the banks under duress so they can ride out the wave of loan delinquencies.

    upload_2020-11-5_17-30-9.png

    To be continued...
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  12. robot zombie

    robot zombie Friend

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    Mmm... "All white people are racists."

    The premise, as I see it is... by being the inborn beneficiary of a lopsided system with built in prejudices, you are also racist... without building the system yourself or really choosing any of it. Simply by surviving in it and therefor contributing to it, you are perpetuating it, regardless of intent. Therefor, you are racist, no matter what you do. Unless you are willing to uproot everything, you're as much the enemy as the system that actually governs things is. Just because you exist within that hierarchy.

    I generally won't have this conversation with people. There is nothing for anyone to gain out of it. I've seen so many people fall into the trap of trying to contest it. You will be gaslit. I may never truly know what it is like to be a black man, but I am reasonably certain that I did not choose to be born in this position any more than anybody else. It's the worst kind of stalemate.

    It just strikes me as going after the wrong things. I've never understood what it is that I am meant to relinquish that is going to equalize the system. There are so many things about the world that directly affect my life and at times cause me total existential grief to the point of borderline absolute, world-weary bitterness. Soul-crushing "this will never be better - I will live and die in this and I can't accept it." type of stuff. And the torture of it all is that I see no way to change it. Many times I find myself unable to even make my own life better, and at best can only make my peace and try to focus on something more actionable.

    It's like getting mad at a part of the engine in the car that someone drove into a crowd, you know? People are dead, the driver is running away, and you're here politicking with a radiator cap about how its whole existence is murder.

    The insult isn't in the accusation of racism. That kind of shit just bounces off of me. It's the insinuation that somehow by the color of my skin I am any more in control of things in my life than anyone else. Our positioning in life will differ, but we all have the same general needs and fears. I feel like that gets lost in these guilt-driven sorts of arguments. Factor out the human element and there is no practical solution.

    We are all stuck on this ride and that means the individual is immutable. It cannot be factored out in a meaningful way. And really, the majority of white people are still towards the bottom of the totem pole. I don't think climbing over one another will work. We'd all just fall lower.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Now as far as what I was getting at, we can actually find the status of loans for any bank in the USA.



    Now I posted the above video with all seriousness. This is because the USA is one of a few countries (or maybe the only one) in the world where so much banking data, much of it fresh, is available to its citizens. It's just that most of us don't know how to get it. Talk about transparency! Sure, I rail against big government - but this is an instance where big government actually works! Except in this case, it's not politicians, it's technocrats.

    When I was in banking IT, every quarter, we had to run extracts from our core processing systems to deliver data to the Feds. These are called Call Reports. Earlier on, it was a slight pain because we had to massage some data to get it into the right format. Later on, it became easier because our service providers improved the process so it was just as much as pressing a button.

    All this data is available at the FFIEC website. The FFIEC is the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. They are an interagency body that combines the main regulatory agencies for banking: the FRB, FDOC, OCC, NCUA, and now the CFPB (a new agency which was not really needed, but some politicians to help people stoopid with their money).

    The FFIEC provides something called the UBPR, the Unified Bank Performance Report, which takes the Call Report data (basically a core dump) and puts it into various more user-friendly tables. From these tables, we can assess the health of the bank. Now there is no one number like SINAD that rules them all. One bank can operate very differently from another bank. How to really get a sense of how a bank is doing requires some experience, looking at numerous tables, lines, etc. One can gather how a bank does business this way. Think of it like looking at FR, distortion, CSDs, attack/decay envelope, etc. How to do these things is outside the scope of this discussion.

    However, at least one super duper cool thing we can do is see how a bank's loans are doing.

    There are reports out there that give us a macro view, but I prefer to look at a sample of local community and regional banks and put the pieces together myself. Indeed it's more work this way, but I find it much more awarding and insightful. For example, I may look up how smaller community banks the Bank of Santa Clarita, Heritage Bank of Commerce (San Jose), Silicon Valley Bank (Santa Clara), Pacific Commerce Bank (LA), are doing with their loans. Then I may move up a to regional banks like Bank of the West or Union Bank, and see how they are doing.

    I will avoid International banks or Asian banks (too much funny business). All I can say about the Korean banks in El Lay is that they are staffed with the hottest Korean girls (they are rotated from Korea for stints - I am sure only the hottest ones are accepted for USA transfers).
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  14. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Now this is the link to the FFIEC UBPR page: https://www.ffiec.gov/ubpr.htm

    There is a Users Guide, more than a hundred pages that I recommend that you read. But you don't have to. The URL to obtain the UBPR report for any bank is here: https://cdr.ffiec.gov/public/ManageFacsimiles.aspx

    Basically we only need to do three things:
    1. Drop pulldown and select Uniform Bank Performance Report
    2. Type in bank name
    3. Press search
    upload_2020-11-5_18-1-0.png

    This then takes you the next page (assuming the bank was found). Here I like to select custom to see the last five quarters. If you don't, you the the last quarter's results, and then the same quarter from the prior year.

    upload_2020-11-5_18-2-34.png

    After this, we click the "Generate Report" button.
     
  15. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Now here is where stuff gets cool. To see how the banks loans are doing, we really only need to be concerned with three pages of data:
    1. Concentrations of Credit - that is what types of loans goes the bank give out and where it is concentrated. This may well us something about its specialty. This could be car loans, individual loans, commercial property, 1-4 family construction, etc. All the categories that you can think of.
    2. PD, Nonacc & Rest Loans (a and b, two pages). This stands for Past Due, Nonacc, and restructured loans. The restructured loans are there to prevent banks from gaming the system - restructuring bad loans to they looked good. Many banks were guilty of doing this during the housing crisis. Past Due is stuff 30-89 days past due or 90+ days past due. A loan is considered in really bad shape if its 90+ days past due. Nonacc is non-accrual. It means fucked loan - that the borrower has totally flaked and the account is bad and therefore no longer accruing interest.
    upload_2020-11-5_18-5-34.png
     
  16. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    So here is the Concentrations of Credit page for Bank of the West.

    There are three things I will explain:
    1. Primitive graph showing trend of last 5 quarters. These trend lines are fairly new to me as they did not exist in 2013.
    2. Bank - the bank's numbers in terms of loans / capital
    3. PG # - peer group (to see where this bank stands in respect to its peer group). The peer group number is by size, function, other factors, as described the the UBPR instruction manual.
    upload_2020-11-5_18-17-41.png

    We can see that in general, lending as a percentage of capital has been down in the past 5 quarters from the quarter ending 9/30/2020. Municipal loans have gone up from 6/30 to 9/30, which makes sense. Commercial real estate loans had a null, but started to take off in the last quarter. Note that the numbers are in respect to % of capital, so numbers going down could be a result of the bank having more capital and not being able to effectively lend it out. Generally, we see that Bank of the West has their hand in just about every type of loan.
     
  17. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    So here's the fun stuff, the past due loans:

    upload_2020-11-5_18-35-7.png

    We see the trends of real-estate loans going bad, but not quite to 1% yet, that's when we start to get worried. Across the board, we are seeing some signs of past due or loans that should be written off, but nothing super worrying yet. Construction and land development loans is concerning with a sudden jump and increase in 30-79 days past due for the past two quarters, but most aren't in "fucked borrower" status yet. 1-4 Family Mortgage PD has increased ever so slightly but is within norms.

    Note that we can pull up a quarter as far back as the mortgage crisis to get an idea of what's normal and what's not. Note that there were signs of stress in real estate going as far back as 2005 before anybody (the general public) knew - before the shit hit the fan for the mortgage crisis years later.

    upload_2020-11-5_18-35-44.png

    On the second page here, we can see auto loans starting to go bad. Makes sense. If there is any good news, bad auto loans has been stable for the past two quarters. Credit card stuff can be up and down and usually have high past due rates over 1%, so nothing abnormal there.

    From the Bank of the West UBPR, I don't see the world ending yet. On the Summary page, there is Tier 1 capital, of which there is plenty - actually increased significantly from two quarters ago. Perhaps the bank is preparing for a rainy day? May be interesting to look at Union Bank. I'll let you guys do that.

    if you guys want to dig into the data, there's a lot of information that can be useful for you if you like to gamble in the stock market. Obviously this won't help you predict Tesla or Apple, but it will give you a good indication where the economy is headed, usually with a two quarter head start, or as during the mortgage crisis, years head start.

    I actually scratched my head for years wondering why the shit hadn't hit the fan when every other Asian dude I knew was trying to be like Tom Vu or the Rich Dad Poor Dad guy; but when it did, the shit was the worst smelling diarrhea complete with the undigested corn kernels that went flying everywhere.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2020
  18. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Some more scary numbers from Union Bank

    upload_2020-11-5_19-33-47.png

    Nonfarm nonresidential: commercial property, business and industrial
    Owner occupied nonfarm nonresidential: hospitals, golf courses, waterslide parks, car washes,
    Other nonfarm nonresidential: hotels, dorms, storage, warehouse, nursing homes
     
  19. rhythmdevils

    rhythmdevils MOT: rhythmdevils audio

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    Just one example of how brilliant Bernie Sanders is. When people here talk about “all presidents/politicians lying etc have a look at how intelligent and insightful and accurate this clip is of Bernie exactly predicting what unfolded in the election.

     
  20. YMO

    YMO Chief Fun Officer

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    One of the few things he is right, maybe the only thing he is right IMO.
     

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