Putin's War With Ukraine (and democracy, freedom, self-determination, etc.)

Discussion in 'SBAF Blogs' started by purr1n, Feb 25, 2022.

  1. Riotvan

    Riotvan Snoofer in the Woofer

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    Regardless of your opinion of Jordan Peterson, his latest podcast with Frederick Kagan is very interesting. It really touches on the history and motivation behind Putin’s actions. How does Russia’s hybrid war work and why they switched to a more conventional style of war in Ukraine.
     
  2. Cellist88

    Cellist88 Friend

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    lol China…
     
  3. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Only have had time to check out the first 1/3 or so. Kagan is a true believer in the west's "hegemonic' self image (a kind of anti-thesis to what he critique's in Putin's/Russia self image), but as usual Peterson is able (sometimes) to get underneath it to something useful...
     
  4. k4rstar

    k4rstar Britney fan club president

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    Couldn't finish the Kagan interview, the guy is a talking head and was deeply involved in the American military industrial complex's rape of the middle east for natural resources. that's all these guys who work at these 'think tanks' like AEI and RAND do, create threats out of foreign states, lobby to neocons (and neoliberals) to justify military action to raise defense spending and secure overseas industrial contracts. gross!
     
  5. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    Your evaluation might seem extreme, but it's really not. Obama called this establishment "the blob" and admitted his failure to fundamentally question their assumptions/influence was his #1 policy failure. Trump's typing them as part of "the swamp" was the same thing.

    The fact that this establishment has the inner circle of BOTH parties in their back pocket means they rule the narrative, and are able to hoodwink the "average" american into their vision of what America/"the west" is all about, and what should be done about it.
     
  6. Riotvan

    Riotvan Snoofer in the Woofer

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    Ah well jokes on me for taking it at face value lol
     
  7. BenjaminBore

    BenjaminBore Friend

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    Smart lady. She shares a brief assessment on whether Putin's inner circle, and the Oligarchs, are a threat. Also highlights the lack of room for compromise, and the necessity of increasing pressure on Putin.

     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  8. mediumroast

    mediumroast Facebook Friend

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    Thanks for sharing. In part, hybrid warfare seems to be like the psyops soviets were trying to do during the Cold War aimed at the West.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  9. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    I knew guys from RAND and ex-military ex-RAND ex-intel type guys who were very concerned at the build-up toward the invasion of Iraq in 2002. The theme was always this: what do we do after we win ground combat? I recall these guys freaking out, pacing back and forth in the office, going nuts. Bottom line is that they were very much against the invasion.

    The 10th anniversary of the invasion, RAND highlighted a bunch of papers, where none of them had better than a "mixed" assessment of the the war: bad assumptions, shit planning, shit results, no better posture against terrorists, Iraq still hates us, there is just some shit that we cannot affect, how close we were to losing, this was fail, how we have zero influence there now, etc. RAND authors write stuff in a weird way because they want to be seen as neutral, but it's obvious to when they are saying "wow, that was completely dumb."

    It was the W administration that took things to a whole 'nother level of stupidity. Remember, in the USA, the POTUS is Commander-in-Chief of the military. As for the doubling-down in Afghanistan by Obama / Gates, Kagan claims that he and his friends at AEI just put up some numbers, akin to setting up Warhammer 40k table top game (with us as Space Marines and Taliban as as Space Orcs), and that Robert Gates just ran with that. I fault Obama's stupidity or lack of experience, not Kagan, for the +$2T spent on Surge Part Deux. Obama should have listened to Joe when Joe supposedly grabbed him by the arm and whispered: "listen, I know these guys, don't listen to them, they are going to suck us in." (To Biden's credit, I'm glad we got us "the hell outta Dodge". All the bitching about us withdrawing the wrong way is bullshit because there's no right way to do it.)

    Bottom line is that I strongly doubt any POTUS listens for advice. I think they simply decide in their gut what they want to do and seek confirmation. Not any different from audio where new people come here and want confirmation that their choice is the right one. Except often we tell them it's the wrong one but they don't listen anyway.

    Finally, RAND does far more than the "Danger, Will Robinson <insert evil nation> now has hypersonic missiles that will put the USA at as disadvantage!". They write at lot of random shit about health, education, science, cybersecurity.

    TBH, I think they are kind of lame today because their researchers are mostly academics who have no idea how to do and have never lived through their subjects of expertise. I get the feeling that the senior guys put their feet on the table while their "clerks" do their research via newspapers, wikipedia, and watch YouTube videos to write their papers.

    As for that podcast with Kagan, I don't think anyone who has been a student of history and has a keen interest in current events has learned much from him. Well, there is one speculative aspect he pointed out which I hadn't considered: Putin's increasing paranoia over the years. Jordon Peterson to me seemed to be asking a lot of dumb questions, but I think he was trying to be the average person asking good questions.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  10. crenca

    crenca Friend

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    The more I think about this:

    https://www.classical-music.com/new...s-chief-conductor-of-the-munich-philharmonic/

    This is racism. Identity politics leads to this - Gergiev as a platonic initiation of "Putinism", who he is/what he is (i.e. a "bad Russian") define if he is employable. He is not allowed to be human, a patriot (however mistaken), loyal to family/friends/country - he must be an true believer of whatever cause the illiberal left is behind today (will be different in the morning) and speak the right words or he is to be shunned. Not that long ago we were careful to distinguish that Islam is ok, it's the bad Islamic "terrorists" that were the problem. The day before yesterday we chastised those who said "China virus" because that's racist. I know it's the heat of the moment but perhaps some of you can understand why many Eastern Europeans are weary of the illiberal west.
     
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  11. mediumroast

    mediumroast Facebook Friend

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    I think propagandist want you to be labled and super sensitive about racism , then they can call you and everyone around racist.

    Some hyper conservative groups hint at you for being racist almost by the way you walk.. so can the liberals who dont like people who stand out. So the racism bs is just bs. Some people do not like you and want to weed you out and call you racist.

    I am one of these people who watched Django Unchained and felt the pain people went under Real racism. Although people can toxify the air with words too... Nazi bs has always been disgusting for me. Soviets were not better in regards to limiting human rights and killing people. The belief system were born of the time, where people talked about eugenics even in the west I read.

    A rethorical question. If you just turn on everyone outside, whos fault is it?
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  12. Pancakes

    Pancakes Friend

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    99% of the time it's your own. When I managed a team, I would tell them not to bitch about things. Being higher up in the hierarchy, I had knowledge they didn't (that at times was not appropriate to share) so they just had to trust me. However, I also told them they get two "mutinies" per year. This was because if there's something everyone else is seeing that I am not, I need to know about it.
     
  13. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Your fault. Just being pragmatic here. Power dynamics, social interactions, high-school bullshit. It happens everywhere. There's usually a reason for someone being the odd-man out, who cannot get along. Sometimes it's even the bossman (as the entire team quits one by one, usually after someone well respected on the team calls it quits). In the majority of cases, the situation is actually correctable, but people usually double-down on being "right" instead of getting along.
     
  14. mediumroast

    mediumroast Facebook Friend

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    Defining one self as someone super special or different makes life quite difficult in the modern world. Some kind of growth and meaningful connections is the way forward.

    Got to appreciate good leaders!
     
  15. purr1n

    purr1n Desire for betterer is endless.

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    Think of Gergiev as a casualty of war. Gergiev picked his side and stood by it. He got figuratively axed. Oligarchs with any kind of association with Putin are having their assets confiscated or being locked out of their own companies without due process. The only reason Roman Abramovich didn't lose his Premier League football team is because Israel made a few phone calls on his behalf. Even then, Abramovich knows the tide is against him so he's put Chelsea F.C. up for sale. Think of this as war in the era of globalism.

    Anyway, what is it with oligarchs and their yachts? They have all yachts. Why do they lack creativity with respect to displaying their power and wealth?
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  16. Tachikoma

    Tachikoma Almost "Made"

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    To be fair, if they had a secret underwater base, you wouldn't hear about it, and they'd need a (super) yacht to get to it.
     
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  17. roshambo123

    roshambo123 Friend

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    Someone sent me a reddit link by a purported Russian finance professor at the University of Chicago. TL;DR the Russian economy is fucked and about to shutdown so hard covid will look like a picnic.

    Incoming shortages of literally everything including food, no money to buy imported goods (frozen assets), can't export anything, can't build anything because need imported components you can't get, so big unemployment, can't pay state employees, can't fix aircraft because can't get imported spare parts so ground entire country. People will try to leave so they'll shutdown the internet and lockdown the country to prevent people from leaving, but then nobody will work. Enjoy USSR level austere fun except Putin is in charge.
     
  18. Beefy

    Beefy Friend

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    I've heard a lot to this effect. Things are going to get very messy.

    What's also "interesting" is that some of the war effort is highlighting how bad the Russian economy was even beforehand. Either through lack of resources or corruption. I've seen very credible reports that the slow progress of the 40 mile long convoy is attributable to poor tire maintenance.
     
  19. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2022
  20. Kernel Kurtz

    Kernel Kurtz Friend

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    I'm heartened to see how everyone in free world seems to be of the same mind about this. There is nothing too small for Russia to have been banned from. Being cut off from online gaming does not matter much. Being cut off from app stores and related services does not matter much. Being cut off from movie releases, Eurovision competitions, soccer, hockey, Formula 1 and the Paralympics does not matter much. But a thousand little cuts taken together sends a consistent message and it is good to see.
     

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