Merv's Politically Incorrect Audio Blog

Fix It Again Tony.

 

So this is kind of random but it hit me as I was sitting here listening to music - so many options now days, so many speakers, headphones, amps, DACs, cables, and other accessories. A good $500 setup is still possible, but I know many of us are easily $10k+ into this audio hobby and I am not surprised when I see many setups over $100k. i.e. not a small amount of "stuff".

Then I thought about the amount of "stuff" and consequently the amount of (unknowning) coordination and inevitable work between different peoples who believe fundamentally different things, have different ways of life, and different goals that is implied by all of this - people who may hate or kill each other in real life if they had to meet together to work on these things even 40-50 years ago (i.e. not that long ago). The amount of manufacturing this all took. Gathering, coordination, and distribution of resources, manufacturing, and knowledge. On and on.

And just stopped to think - this is actually all pretty amazing.

Yet, on the other hand, the more I look around both the developed and developing world (or first vs third world depending on world view), between many now rival nations and ideologies, the general instability in the world right now, and nations not wanting to rely on exports and working together as much. And I started to wonder - how is this hobby going to look in 20 or 30 years without this kind of coordination? Add on top of this that in every industrial or somewhat industrialized country I look at - production as a whole seems to be in a state of decline, the general quality of life has declined for the average person and some formerly nice or at least OK places half resemble failed states now, at least in some parts. Including the US. And also wonder - how is this also going to impact our hobby in 20 - 30 years?

And now back to the regularly scheduled music because the best part of the song is on now.

 

If the only thing that doesn't survive the next 30 years is the personal audio industry we shall all dance naked on the beach.

You'll need to be specific as my understanding is worldwide the quality of living has actually increased in the past ten years. China makes those numbers a bit wacky though.

I tried to make this point to someone this week and they didn't quite get me. My point was there's only two states for civilization: growing instability or outright war. The cycle goes from one to the other.

So if the world is unstable, that's as good as you can ask for, it has never been safe or stable. Enjoy any peace while it lasts.

 

South Florida may be worse than any other part of Florida I cross to get there two times a year but..it is nothing comparing to the near death experience that was driving daily on 401 Hwy near Toronto, ON

 

Should clarify - I don't think the hobby will disappear unless the world blows itself up. Just curious how things will look if X components are no longer available in Y places, Z manufacturer is having problems with export, etc.

I would say QOL increased maybe sometime between 2000 and 2010 for some nations that were not as developed, but looking around, I still think it's decreased on average in the last 10 years, especially in developed places.

I can see your last point actually. Guess it's how the individual instability will look.

 

@penguins go outside and sell your audio gear.

 

You mean like Covid? lol

People will just change their tastes to what they can afford and manufacturers will change their designs for what is available.

When we lost Russian tubes it just drove demand for solid state and manufacturers like Schiit redesigned amps to take the tubes they could still buy in quantity.

This is one of the reasons "Limits to Growth" and peak oil haven't come to pass. The world finds another way because previously unaffordable alternatives become affordable. Then with scale and development, they become the new status quo and people forget the old ways.

 

QoL index is measured with objective stats. Ours was very high ten years ago but dropped big between 2014 and 2016 (global economy was hurting bad at the end of 2015). Started to climb slowly and then bottomed out with COVID. Started to rise again since and this year it climbed significantly.

 

Ohhohhoho. I will write you in over here in Ohio baby!

 

Excuses are for the weak, I got ran out of my previous profession due to world events, but I adapted, went back to school and now I tell those f**kers what to do.

 

Also from the Fed in St. Louis:

When one compares the two graphs it is clear age groups 60s-70s have been treading water, 40s-50s are sinking and 20s-30s are drowning with anchors tied to them.

But hey, the 0.01% wealth group doesn't have enough yet.

 

The combination of inflation, lack of housing and rising costs of living is going to drive the new group of 18-25 year olds to the brink of desperation. In the Netherlands there are not enough houses and the market is slowly locking up for the younger generation.

At one point nobody will care about the environment and green energy anymore. Finding a house and keeping a job are going to become more difficult than ever.

 

Maybe not so much coordination in this sense... but let's say the world continues to splinter more. And more stuff than just chips or processing units become hard to acquire / mfg.

I supposed wealth gap / lack of disposable income is another big problem. Still have to pay to play but it seems like there's less and less significant amounts of disposable income now amongst the majority of people. And I don't see a few rich people being able to prop this whole thing up. Work or no, cost of things as a % of median income is too high to be (generally) healthy for hobbies like this right now. And it's not like most audio mfgs or people in the business are buying their figurative new Ferraris and jets every year...

 

Had too many people knocking on my door trying to sell me solar, keep telling them to get lost. On top of the steep cost and people financing them to get them on their house (which will put a lien on the deed on the house), too much $$$ for little payback. Also, it isn't like you are getting a good deal selling your power back to FPL or one of those power companies in the state.

 

I haven’t delved into the solar financing and prob won’t soon as we don’t plan on staying in this house, but how do they get you there? What’s the scam that they’re selling? I’m guessing some kind “no money down” wirh a huge back end.

 

I’m going REAL “green”. At the end of the month we’re putting a Vermont Castings Wood Stove in my 26x16 listening room/living room. I’ll burn wood at high efficiencies, and we’ll just use the oil for the hot water system (mostly). Heck, between the Oak down in a storm 18 months ago, and the just-felled black cherry (last week in a big storm), I’ve got over 1/2 cord right there; alls I gotta do is cut, split and stack (and age) it.

Solar in mountainous NH for over half the year is an utter JOKE, payback/roi won’t happen until AFTER the life-span of the cells… not enough sun. Now, would I *like* to have it also as a backup, with sufficient battery and tertiary generator capacity? Sure… but I’ve an inkling REAL “cash” is going to be worth a lot more very soon…. And anyone who borrows or uses “special” financing for Solar is a perfect candidate for PT Barnum….

What do I know, I came of adulthood in the mid 70’s during the last time we were HERE (and the fundamentals were far better then).